1.5 TW of wind, solar capacity needed each year by 2030 to meet 1.5 degrees limit

A new analysis which applies sustainability limits and minimises the need for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) finds new wind and solar needs to be installed five times faster by 2030 at a rate of 1.5 TW a year to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Global wind and solar capacity needs to increase to around 10 TW by the end of this decade, up from 2 TW in 2022. This is achievable if the recent acceleration in capacity additions is maintained.

"Everyone from the EU to the COP Presidency is calling for a global renewables target, but this must be based on the safest route to net zero. We've shown that if the world accelerates new wind and solar fivefold to at least 1.5 TW a year by 2030 while cutting fossil use by 40 per cent, we won't have to rely on potentially unsustainable amounts of carbon dioxide removal in the future," says Claire Fyson, Head of Policy at Climate Analytics.

The study distils key milestones the international community needs to meet by 2030 to keep warming below 1.5 degrees, including rapidly scaling up renewables this decade to 70 per cent of the global power mix, cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 8 per cent a year to halve global emissions by 2030, and a 34 per cent cut to global methane emissions over this critical decade for climate action.

Methane emissions in the energy sector would need to fall even faster, by 66 per cent.

"Our method takes only the latest global pathways with the most up-to-date information on technologies and costs. We know wind and solar can scale quickly and undercut fossil fuels on price. Our analysis shows they can do much of the heavy lifting so urgently needed this decade, so let's fast-track their rollout," says Neil Grant, Energy and Climate Analyst at Climate Analytics.

Not all pathways in the IPCC AR6 database are fully compatible with the Paris Agreement. The study's method focuses on the latest 1.5-aligned pathways that integrate sustainability constraints, filtering out older analyses and those that rely too heavily on risky assumptions.

As a result, the study finds just 0.1 per cent of global power would come from CCS by 2030.