Lok Sabha poll: Why AAP is on the backfoot in Delhi?

The feeling that Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has shot itself in the foot by refusing a seat adjustment with the Congress is gaining ground in Delhi. Not only is AAP seen as the third force in four of the seven constituencies, its decision to go alone may have jeopardised the chances of even the remaining three of its popular candidates.

Atishi Marlena from East Delhi, Raghav Chadha from South Delhi and Dilip Pandey from the North-East are strong candidates but they are pitted against more seasoned war horses from both the BJP and the Congress.

The other four AAP candidates are virtually faceless. Pankaj Gupta (Chandni Chowk), a close associate of chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, Brijesh Goyal (New Delhi), Balbir Singh Jhakar (West Delhi) and Guggan Singh (North West) are relative lightweights and are little known in their constituencies.

While AAP had caught the popular imagination in 2015 by sweeping the assembly election and decimating both Congress and the BJP, it is on a far weaker wicket in 2019. It had aroused high expectations among the people, which have been belied. Several promises made in the manifesto like free WIFI and greater safety for women etc., which had drawn the youth, are no longer talked about.

The erosion in the AAP support base was reflected in DUSU (Delhi University Students’ Union) and MCD (Municipal Corporation of Delhi) elections.

The performance of the AAP Government too has been mixed. While it has won accolades for changing the face and functioning of several Government schools and for its Mohalla clinics, there have also been criticism. AAP has been showcasing a handful of schools and advertising them generously, it is complained in Delhi, while the majority of more than a thousand Government schools continue to be in a bad shape. Drop outs and poor results are also sore points with parents while several Mohalla Clinics are seen to have been used to rehabilitate party cadre or rent premises owned by supporters.

In the last four years, at least four AAP ministers had to be dropped. Asim Khan was dropped following corruption charges. Jitender Singh Tomar had to leave after his Law degree turned out to be fake. Sandeep Kumar was dropped after a sex scandal while Kapil Mishra was eased out after he accused a fellow minister of accepting a bribe. All this also dented the image of the Kejriwal Government.

While AAP engaged in damage control by intensifying and publicising its differences with the Union Government and the Lieutenant Governor (LG), complaining about their interference, it has not been able to recover from the departure of people like Prashant Bhushan, Yogendra Yadav, Ashutosh, Kumar, Vishwas and Ashish Khetan.

That not all is well in AAP became evident when Arvind Kejriwal failed to accompany any of the AAP candidates when they went out to file their nomination.

Congress and AAP have a common support base in Delhi. Both the parties enjoyed the support of the poor, the minorities and large sections of the Middle Classes. In 2015 all these groups had overwhelmingly voted for AAP. Arvind Kejriwal continues to enjoy the support of minorities and Dalits, but Congress has been able to recover at least some of its lost ground. And these groups are keen to ensure the defeat of the BJP, the floating voters and the fence sitters among them could drift back to the Congress if the Grand, Old Party succeeds in building the perception that it is putting up a fight.