Winds of change in Mexico

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, popularly known as AMLO, took over as the new President of Mexico, on December 1 this year, becoming the first President in the country with strong left-wing views and having an ambitious pro-people programmes like those of British Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbin and the US Democratic Party leader Bernie Sanders. In fact, political analysts in Latin America call three of them as the trio who are setting the agenda of change in their respective countries.

In four days after taking over, AMLO has raised huge expectations among the people of Mexico for a real change in the economy and the polity and his rating is now put at 66% which is something unprecedented among the politicians in Latin America. In fact, the media people are comparing AMLO with the jailed former President of Brazil, Lula De Silva, who also had a high rating despite being sent to jail by the right-wing government on trumped up charges.

AMLO is also a good friend of Lula and he claims to belong to the progressive movement in Latin America for radical economic reforms to serve the poAs the Leftist President sees it, his six-year-old term, beginning December 1 this year, is not just another presidency. It is the Fourth Transformation in Mexico following the independence from Spain, the mid-19th century political reforms and the Mexican Revolution. He has promised to end corruption, fund the social programmes for the poor by saving funds through his anti-corruption measures, transform the neoliberal economy by expanding state control on key sectors including oil and reduce the incidents of violence including ending the domination of the drug mafia. He has a dream and that is to convert Mexico into a great power of the 21st century. AMLO has created big enthusiasm and there is a new mood of confidence that finally, change is taking place for the better.

The ground right now is fertile for the Mexican President to take speedy actions but his tasks are tough and he can do it only if he retains his coalition partners together and listens to his well wishers in the social and trade union movements that have supported him all through. Mexico is one of the most violence-prone countries and the drug cartels are well entrenched with widely connected political links. About 43% of the country’s people is taken as poor and common people have so long been fed up with political parties because of their corrupt practices and their use of politics to get rich. The new President will meet the toughest opposition when he starts targeting the drug mafia and their contacts.

AMLO has promised to increase social spending and cut poverty. He has also initiated an austerity programme and announced a 40% cut in his pay. Under new laws, nobody in Mexico can get a salary more than the President which is now only $5,300 per month. This will infuriate the high salary earners who are many. “You can have a rich government and poor people,” he says. AMLO has promised not to raise taxes and to respect the central bank’s independence. He has also just signed the new North American Free Trade Agreement though he has complained about the slow growth and stagnant salaries since Mexico embraced free trade. He has also promised no expropriations.

Mexico is Latin America’s second largest economy. Though it is a part of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) along with the United States and Canada, Mexico has much in common with the issues that are prevalent in Latin American countries. US President Donald Trump is in a constant battle with the Mexican government over both trade issues and immigration, leading to anger among the Mexican population. The defeated former President Pena Nieto, a right-wing politician, had to protest Trump’s actions due to the sentiments of his own people but there was no force in that. Now, the common Mexicans feel that they have a voice and the new President will be in a position to fight Trump on policy issues at an equal level.

Mexico is among the world’s fifteen largest economies. The country is however highly dependent on the US, its largest trading partner and destination of 80 per cent of exports. AMLO has declared that his main task will be to fight corruption and he will increase funds for the poor and the common people by saving about $20 billion by plugging corrupt practices. He is committed to raise the salaries of the lowest paid workers including increased pensions for the elderly, educational grant for the Mexican youth and additional support for the farmers.

The new president leads the MORENA coalition which is a conglomerate of a number of groups and parties including the leftists and conservatives who are opposed to the status quo in Mexico. He is a good friend of British Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn and their programmes are also similar. Just as the British Communist Party is extending conditional support to Corbyn, Obrador is also getting some amount of support from the Mexican Communist Party in his fight against corruption and for improvement of the conditions of the poor. Obrador has high respect for the jailed Brazilian former President Lula and he wants to introduce the poverty action programme which helped Brazil during Lula’s time to raise the living standards of the poor.

His social sector programmes will be getting wide support but his real battle will be on the issue of dealing with the foreign companies, especially the US companies which are operating in Mexico. Obrador has promised to review the contracts for oil exploration awarded to international firms and to respect those which are clean and take legal measures against those that are not. There is pressure from the leftists on him to nationalise the oil industry in view of the corruption practiced by the foreign oil companies. Pemex is the state-run oil company and the new president has to carefully examine how to make the oil exploration policy serve the best interests of Mexico. The two earthquakes of September 2017 have damaged the oil sector and the services market but 2018 should see a boom in construction activities, according to experts. Oil production accounts for one-third of government revenues and Obrador’s task will be to see how the government’s share of revenues can be raised from the oil sector.

At the political level, the self-proclaimed Leftist president has to take the coalition partners with him including both the Leftists and the conservatives who are against the present austerity programmes for the poor. The Left of Latin America is putting high hopes on him. The illegally impeached former President of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, has said that Obrador’s victory is not just a victory for Mexico, it is for all Latin America. Argentina’s former President Cristina Kirchner tweeted that Obrador represents hope not just for Mexico but for the entire region. The Communist parties of Latin America, as also other Leftist groups, feel that Mexico’s win will signal the return of progressive winds to Latin America.

That way, the Latin American Left is anxiously watching the actions of AMLO and its impact on the Mexican people. It he succeeds, Latin American Left will get a new boost after its defeat in Brazil and Argentina.

(IPA Service)