Was Pakistan aware of Delhi’s moves on Kashmir?

Pakistan is either clueless or is just playing a time pass game vis-à-vis New Delhi’s steps to abolish the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. There is a sense of calm in Pakistan on what has happened. Although a special sitting of joint Parliament of Pakistan (Joint Parliament is when members of both Pakistan National Assembly and Upper House Senate sit together to discuss an issue) was called but it ended without a resolution.

Pakistan Prime minister Imran Khan, in his speech and in response to the criticism of the Opposition in the joint session, said, “Tell me what I should do. Should I attack India?”

Opposition leader Shahbaz Sharif responded by saying, “No, I am not asking you to wage a war against India.” Imran khan then asked for proposals on what Pakistan can do. So, in a way, there was a consensus in the Pakistan Parliament. No war with India was the simple and straight message.

The Pakistan military also has given a diplomatic response in the situation. Although an emergency meeting of the formation commanders was called after the Indian move but the press release issued after meeting has no call of action.

It says: “The Forum fully supports (Pak) Government’s rejection of Indian actions regarding Kashmir. Pakistan never recognised the sham Indian efforts to legalise its occupation of Jammu and Kashmir through Article 370 and 35 – decades ago; efforts which now been revoked by India itself. Pakistan army firmly stands by the Kashmiris in their just struggle to the very end. We are prepared and shall go to any extent to fulfill our obligations in this regard. Chief of Army staff affirmed”

According to various analysts, the press release is just an eye wash in the present situation. It has no call to action, no strategy and no road map for the way forward. It is just playing to the gallery.

However, the foreign office of Pakistan is working on two strategies. But it is not sure of success. According to sources in the foreign office, it is clearly written in the Shimla Agreement signed between India and Pakistan that no side will bring any change in the disputed territory of Kashmir till the issue is resolved. Hence, the Indian move is a violation of a bilateral agreement between India and Pakistan.

However, the foreign office is not sure as to which international forum to approach about this alleged violation. As no international forum or power is guarantor to this agreement, one opinion is to go to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to have a verdict against India on New Delhi’s recent moves.

The second opinion in the Pakistan foreign office is to go to the UN Security Council as there is a 1948 resolution on Kashmir from the same council. But there is no consensus as to which route to take. Can both the options be used? What will happen if it backfires?

Though the popular sentiment on the streets of Pakistan is one of jingoism and war hysteria, the politicians are clearly not walking that path.

This has led to a general perception amongst the people that Imran Khan and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are on same page on the issue, that Indian steps came as no surprise, that US President Donald Trump’s recent offer to mediate on Kashmir was also on the same lines and that Imran Khan was briefed about the Indian move during his trip to the US.

In a surprise move, (terror mastermind) Hafiz Saeed was arrested and put in jail for the first time before Imran Khan’s US visit. Hafiz Saeed is in jail and all offices of his organisations (Jamaat–ud-Dawah) have been shut down by the Pakistani government. This has never happened before. Not only Saeed is in jail but many of his aides are there as well.

Imran Khan and the Pakistani establishment are just trying to keep the public sentiment and opinion calm. However, some feel the Indian move is quiet acceptable to Islamabad as then Pakistan can replicate the Indian steps in Pakistan occupied Kashmir. This, in their view, is the ultimate solution of the Kashmir issue.

A Pakistani defence analyst, on the condition of anonymity, said if Punjab and Bengal could be divided between India and Pakistan, why not Kashmir! “Pakistan can keep its part and India can keep its. All of the provinces of Pakistan have gone through such divisions since Independence.

Punjab and Bengal are the biggest examples. Even Sindh was part of Mumbai. Khyber Pakhtunkhawa was split between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Half of Baluchistan is with Iran. So, what is the big deal if Kashmir is divided between Pakistan and India,” he said.

A video of a 2017 talk of former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister and former Indian Union Minister Farooq Abdullah has gone viral in Pakistan where he says, “When Vajpayee went to Lahore, he proposed to Pakistan that they can keep Pakistan occupied Kashmir and India would keep this side of the Line of control. But the proposal could not be implemented.”

It is believed here in Pakistan that Indians have been offering this for the last many years. However, Pakistan was reluctant to accept it. But now, there is apparently an agreement between Imran Khan and Narendra Modi on the matter.

The US and other world powers are also on board. Indians have taken the first step forward. Pakistan will respond in due course of time by replicating the same steps on its side of Kashmir. Pakistan has not lost anything as a result of these steps.