Tensions rise, Trump’s Iran gambit involves tremendous risk

The Shia Red Flag was raised on the top of the Jamkaran Mosque in the Iranian city of Qom, seventh largest in the Persian country, after General Qassem Soleimani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ (IRGC’s) elite Quds Force, was assassinated in an aerial attack when his vehicle was targeted in the Baghdad International airport. The Red Flag is the flag of Imam Hussein and marks the colour of blood which, many say, symbolises revenge and an impending severe battle.

If Donald Trump had thought that by removing General Soleimani, Quds Force would retreat and Iran would lose its military-political influence on large swathes of West Asia including Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, he could not be more wrong. It does little to reduce Tehran’s role in the region. In fact, the history of the region suggests that the reverse is more likely. In 2008, the CIA and Mossad, in a joint operation killed Imad Mughniyeh, founder of Lebanon’s Islamic Jihad Organization and the number two man then in Hezbollah. Hezbollah’s influence not just grew but Hezbollah fighters were key components in Damascus and its allies’ push against the ISIS. So worried were the Israelis about Iranian-backed militias and Hezbollah getting closer to the Syria-Israel border that they sought Russian intervention to stop the same. Similarly, repeated targeting of Hamas operatives has done little to diminish the organisation’s influence in Gaza. One of the key reasons has been the decentralised mechanism of operations of these organisations, something the Iranian military has mastered.

Both the Iranian establishment and the IRGC are infinitely more powerful, well-martialled, well-trained organisations as compared to those mentioned above. Iran is also a proud country and Iranians pride on their Persian heritage. The United States may see Soleimani’s death as one stumbling block removed on the path of regime change but when it comes to an external threat, even dissidents in Iran are known to come together with the establishment.

At the same time, talks of war have already started doing rounds in American households driven by the TV channels. While Democrats including Bernie Sanders have warned against Trump waging another war against the people’s will, discussions and polls have reportedly kicked off.

On the streets of Iran, the scene is one of an outpouring of public grief and anger. In various street corners of Iranian cities, towns and settlements, memorial corners have been created where the old and the young, men and women are paying their respects to one of the country’s most respected figures.

As he finds himself on the back foot in a year he is seeking re-election, Trump has kicked off his campaign with an extremely risky gambit. If this escalates into a war, it will surely engulf the region with Saudi Arabia, Israel and UAE on the American side and Syria, Iraq, Lebanon likely on Iran’s side. With an entrenched position in Syria, Russia’s role also may not remain passive. Turkey is another actor which could be pulled into the conflict. So could be Egypt. If that happens, the onus for starting a major war will rest solely with Trump and the United States.