Rajapaksa would ‘latch on to’ any public sympathy from India to incite Sinhalas

As Sri Lanka’s newly sworn Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa suffered a major setback after the government, led by Maithripala Sirisena, lost the no-confidence vote on Wednesday, all eyes are now set on the next hearing of country’s top court on December 7.

In the interim order passed by the Sri Lankan Supreme Court on Tuesday, it overturned Sirisena’s decision of dissolving the Parliament and suspended another key proposal of holding snap elections on January 5.

Even after the Wickremesinghe’s win in Parliament, snap elections in Sri Lanka seem inevitable.

“Wickremesinghe must consider dissolving the Parliament by two-thirds majority and go to an election. So, I imagine that things would somewhat be unstable till the 7th and then a dissolution would be in order,” said Dr Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, the Executive Director of Colombo-based think tank Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) and the founder of Sri Lankan chapter of Transparency International.

In a telephonic chat from Colombo, Saravanamuttu warned that Rajapaksa, who is the most popular leader of Sri Lanka, could exploit any sympathy towards Wickremesinghe from India and the West to his own advantage.

Excerpts:

Q. How is the defeat of Mahinda Rajapaksa during the No-Confidence vote being perceived among his supporters? Would you say that normalcy is returning to Sri Lanka?

A. One hopes that normalcy will return and the Rajapaksas will realise that the writing is pretty clear on the wall, in terms of their support in Parliament.

Having said that, the Supreme Court will give its final decision in the case on the December 7. As of now, the Ranil Wickremesinghe government has been reinstated and the first thing it needs to do is put things on an even keel.

Wickremesinghe must consider dissolving the Parliament by two-thirds majority and go to an election. So, I imagine that things would somewhat be unstable till the 7th and then a dissolution would be in order.

Q. The basis of President Maithripala Sirisena and Mahinda Rajapaksa coming together in toppling the government was the impressive performance of Rajapaksa in the local body polls in February. How popular is Mahinda Rajapaksa in Sri Lanka? Does the attempted coup backed by him enjoy public support?

A. Well, Rajapaksa does enjoy a great deal of support in Sri Lanka, especially among the Sinhala majority community. It is based on a very strong Sinhala nationalism and a populist authoritarianism. Rajapaksa has consistently held on to his main support base. Even in the Presidential elections that he lost, he polled highly in pockets with high concentration of Sinhala people. He is undoubtedly the most popular politician as far as the Sinhala majority is concerned.

The big question, however, is whether some sympathy has moved towards the United National Party (UNP) after what has happened over the last few weeks.

Q. Is it accurate to portray Mahinda Rajapaksa as pro-China, an image that only seems to have been reinforced after China became one of the first foreign governments to rush their envoys to congratulate Rajapaksa after he was sworn-in as Prime Minister?

A. Yes, clearly. Mahinda Rajapaksa has relied a great deal on the Chinese. In fact, the Chinese are in Sri Lanka in such a big way only because the Rajapaksa government invited them in and relied upon them to provide money for infrastructural development, in return for protection in the diplomatic world. So yes, Rajapaksa is seen as more pro-China than Wickremesinghe, though one can’t really characterise Wickremesinghe as anti-China.

Q. And what’s the future of Sirisena in Sri Lankan politics now?

A. The relations between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe have been affected very badly because of what the President did.

But one must remember that Sirisena’s term in office comes up for expiry in January 2020. In any event, he would have to call for Presidential elections this time next year.

The problem that he now faces is to find a party to let himself latch on to. The Sri Lankan Freedom Party (SLFP) that he is hoping to unify under his leadership has effectively been extinguished because of Rajapaksa, who has come up with Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, or Sri Lankan People’s Party (SLPP).

So, he is not facing a very bright future really.

Q. There have been indications that Rajapaksa is aiming for presidency again, in the wake of him joining the SLPP after leaving Sirisena’s SLFP.

A. Yes, the general feeling is that he wants to win the Prime Ministership through the general elections and win big. And then change the Constitution to win back the presidency. There are also fears that he wants to scrap the term limit for the President and bring back the executive Presidency.

Q. We have seen the West virtually boycotting the new government, mainly due to the ouster of Wickremesinghe by the President. India, on the other hand, has called for democratic norms and the Constitution to be respected. How influential are the roles of western powers and India in the Sri Lankan politics?

A. The roles are influential in terms of financial commitments that have been made. For instance, the Americans have frozen a funding of over $400 million after the crisis erupted. The Japanese were coming up with rail transport, worth over a billion dollar, which also stands suspected.

The European Union has basically said that GSP Plus (Generalised Scheme of Preferences Plus, which grants Sri Lanka preferential access to EU market) could be threatened. There are a number of areas in which this is bad news. The Western nations and India have always maintained that they want the constitutional values and the rule of law to be maintained.

India has maintained a similar stand.

But, whatever they do, they shouldn’t be doing it too publicly, simply because Rajapaksa and his allies will jump on the argument. They would likely argue that everything that’s being done is happening at the diktat of the West and India.

They should keep a distance, make the points that concern their national interest. But they should maintain a safe distance and let us resolve the problem by ourselves.