Polls in Bangladesh will be delayed

Chances of an immediate parliamentary election in troubled Bangladesh faded this week when the head of the country's interim government, Muhammad Yunus, refused to provide any timeline for the polls and instead emphasised that he has the "mandate" of first carrying out "vital reforms" in the country.

He did, however, promise "free, fair and participatory elections" once the reforms had been carried out.

This is not something that will go down well with either of the major political formations in Bangladesh — the ousted Awami League or the leading opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), and its ally, the Jamaat-e-Islami.  

The BNP was clearly looking to capitalise on the current mood of the nation, which is clearly against the Awami League, and come to power for the first since its 2001–06 term. This will only be possible if the polls are held soon enough.

The BNP may welcome the witchhunt now underway in the bureaucracy, police, security services and other echelons of government, where those believed to be close to Awami League are being ousted systematically by both executive orders and by student agitators muscling their way through. The way the judges of the Bangladesh Supreme Court, including the chief justice, were made to resign by student protestors with a two-hour ultimatum exemplifies the kind of enforced changes in play. 

Even the Awami League has called for early elections, with ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina's son Sajeed Wajed Joy calling for Indian intervention to ensure "fresh polls within three months". Perhaps the announcement of polls may steal the focus and soften the witchhunt against the party leadership, allowing the Awami League to field a new set of candidates with clean records and exploiting public sentiment against the uncontrolled lawlessness and looting following Hasina's ouster? 

But Nobel laureate Yunus, by focusing on reforms, may be delaying the polls. He has blamed deposed prime minister Sheikh Hasina for "destroying every institution of the country in her efforts to stay in power".  

The putative chief adviser and de facto head of government said the last elections were blatantly rigged and generations of young people have grown up without exercising their voting rights. "Banks were robbed with full political patronisation. And the state coffer was plundered by abusing power," Yunus said on Sunday, 18 August, adding that he will also make sincere efforts to promote national reconciliation.

"In their efforts to stay in power, Sheikh Hasina's dictatorship destroyed every institution of the country. The judiciary was broken. Democratic rights were suppressed through a brutal decade-and-a-half long crackdown," the United News of Bangladesh quoted Yunus as saying through his press secretary, Shafiqul Alam.

Yunus also briefed diplomats stationed in Dhaka for the first time since the interim government's inception, impressing upon them that the country he took over was "in many ways a complete mess".

He added that the interim government's top priority would be to bring the law-and-order situation under control. "We will be close to normalcy within a short period, with the unwavering support of our people and patriotic armed forces," Yunus said.

He sought the international community’s support to rebuild Bangladesh.

On the Rohingya issue, Yunus said the interim government will continue to support the million-plus people sheltered in Bangladesh. "We need sustained efforts of the international community for Rohingya humanitarian operations and their eventual repatriation to their homeland, Myanmar, with safety, dignity and full rights," Yunus said.

So the Nobel laureate seems to have a lot on his plate to fix before he can flag off fresh elections.

The real test for Yunus will be restoring the economic growth that took a post-Covid nosedive, aggravated by mind-boggling corruption, leading to huge bank defaults and unbridled money laundering. Yunus must deal firmly with the financial criminals, now that some of them — like Hasina's adviser Salman F. Rahman — are in custody. 

At the same time, a prolonged stint by the caretaker government risks making the people restive again. Bangladesh has an unsavoury example in the 2006–08 military-backed caretaker regime that went far beyond its brief and, instead of holding polls within a few months, delayed them by two years. In fact, the Awami League used just that example to put an end to the caretaker system, with an overwhelming parliamentary majority secured in the December 2008 polls.

During the earlier military-backed caretaker regime, Yunus did try to launch his own political party, but eventually backed down. There is some speculation now that the 2024 student movement, which has created a perceptible mood for all-out change,  may not only allow for reforms but also be the right moment to launch a new political party with Yunus at the helm.

Doing so would break the longstanding binary in Bangladesh politics, with the pendulum having nowhere to swing but between the Awami League and the BNP–JAMAAT alliance. But if such a party were to fancy any chance at the hustings, Yunus' interim government has to deliver in some key areas, like checking corruption and price rise. Changing faces in the administration will not be enough.

How the delay in elections will go down with global players remains to be seen as well. The United States of America and the European Union may be welcoming, especially if the Democrats continue in power in Washington. India may prefer an interim administration to a BNP–JAMAAT government until it gets its act together. China — which, like India, backed Hasina — may be ready to deal with whoever is in the saddle. 

Subir Bhaumik is a former BBC correspondent and author