No easy task to defeat Trumpism

On February 19, a bracing breeze blew across from the United States of America to Europe. A wind of change. The new president of the US Joseph Biden committed $4 billion to coronavirus vaccination for middle and low income countries at a virtual meeting of the G7 hosted out of London. An hour later in a video address, he assured the Munich Security Conference, “America is back. The transatlantic alliance is back.”

Biden emphasised: “The United States is fully committed to our NATO alliance.” His predecessor Donald Trump caused consternation, indeed behaved abominably with the British Prime Minister Theresa May and the German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The latter frustratedly told her party conference: “We Europeans must really take our destiny into our own hands.”

Trump reneged or retreated from US’s international responsibilities in a manner unseen since President Franklin Roosevelt despatched American troops to Europe to decisively turn the tables against the scourge of Nazism in the Second World War. His violations included recklessly withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord and membership of the World Health Organisation in the midst of COVID. Biden has promptly re-joined both.

In the democratic world there’s hope and expectation of a return to normalcy after the havoc wreaked by Trump. There is optimism that where destruction or an absence of policy reigned, there will be cogency and thrust. That the US will provide leadership to democracies to resist despotism. At the same time, the confidence is tinged with caution, even trepidation. The question that worries the free cosmos is: what if Trumpism returns to America after Biden’s four years at the White House?

While Trump was roundly trounced by 306 to 232 in the electoral college – which is what matters in US presidential elections – he attracted 46.8 per cent of popular votes. The 74 million ballots cast for him out of a total of 155 million exceeded tallies of all previous winners; only Biden’s 81 million figure was greater. Such statistics provide sleepless nights to decent governments and democracies; and instil a realisation that only a successful Biden presidency – which means a marked economic recovery - and a skilful and sustained push back can disrobe Trump’s supporters of their mistaken beliefs.

Trump is a creature of television and the new menace afflicting the globe - social media. He bluffed people into believing he was a multi-billionaire, when he was actually in debt. He marketed his flamboyance into becoming the anchor of the TV reality series Apprentice. This further boosted the image of a “successful entrepreneur” with a clout to hire-and-fire -- which Americans tend to be in awe of -- and a nationwide name recognition. It sent his social media following soaring. He further enlarged these numbers with a heady cocktail of ultra-nationalism and white protectionism.

Before he was banned from them, he commanded 88 million and 35 million followers on Twitter and Facebook respectively. He had in effect 25 per cent of the American public eating out of his fingers. A mass communication weapon – flagrantly abused to disburse conspiracy theories, disinformation and fabrication – no head of government anywhere in the world has possessed. A TV news channel with the biggest viewership – Fox News – was also solidly behind him.

Bereft of the ballast, he is now sheltering at his luxury villa in Florida. His tail behind his back after threatening to prevent a democratic transition to a new administration. He has no intention, though, of remaining silent. This weekend he is scheduled to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference and declare he is his Republican party’s “presumptive 2024 nominee” for president. He will, an adviser was quoted as saying, defiantly claim: “I may not have Twitter or the Oval Office, but I’m still in charge.”

The Republicans are divided in their loyalty towards Trump; but the bulk of the grass-root are with him as well as an overwhelming majority of their representatives and senators. The 50 per cent of lawmakers who are up for re-election in 2022 fear their candidature would be challenged in primaries if they oppose him. The Republican leader in the Senate Mitch McConnell voted to acquit Trump, but blamed him for the insurrection at the Capitol. He and others critical of him have had thuggish threats directed at them and their families.

All except seven Republican senators’ refusal to convict him (which required a two-thirds majority) after he was impeached by the House of Representatives a second time in 12 months, was predictably hailed by Trump as a “not guilty” verdict. 42 per cent of his backers said in a survey conducted by Suffolk University and USA Today this outcome had strengthened their support for him. In short, he is still king, kingmaker and talisman in his party, which is always likely to poll not below 40 per cent nationally in the deep-rooted historical divide between Republicans and Democrats.

Trump could establish his own television channel and a social media company. These would give him, his family and favoured personnel a platform to air their views. He has a war chest of over $200 million for such start-ups. But given his track record, he is likely to be more inclined towards lending his name rather than investing money for such projects. A section of big business who would probably have underwritten him, are now wary after his association with the storming of the Capitol and the legal implications stemming from it.

Besides, there is every prospect of Trump facing investigation and litigation, even loss of liberty, for his firms’ affairs. The stain emanating from such embroilment could erode his political base. The US Supreme Court unanimously ruled against him to grant federal and state authorities access to his tax returns for the past eight years.

Other than the charge of inciting the 6 January violence at the Capitol, he could be swamped with court cases for sexual misconduct, tax evasion or fraud, money laundering, misuse of office and unlawful engagement with foreign entities. Incarceration cannot be ruled out.

People power is a prodigious force in electoral politics. And Trump has clearly constructed a monstrous following. Only the combined might of the state, the criminal justice system and his Republican opponents can cut him and Trumpism to size.