Modi’s foreign policy: Hostile neighbours and distant friends

The first decision that Narendra Modi took after leading the NDA to victory in May 2014 was not related to any internal matter of the country. It had to do with the foreign policy of his government. He invited leaders of all the neighbouring countries to his swearing in ceremony on May 26. The move was a pointer to the fact that he wanted to make a new beginning.

On the eve of his completion of four years in office as Prime Minister, he met Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed in Santineketan. In between he visited all the neighbouring countries, some more than once.

But the bigger point of the debate today is: has India’s relationship with neighbours improved? Or has it deteriorated? It can also be argued that the Modi government alone is not responsible for the fast changing global situation, which had its impact on South Asia too.

It is true that the ties have not improved even with Nepal and Bangladesh––not to speak of China, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Instead of having friends in our backyard, we now have distant friends like the United States, Japan, Australia and Israel.

But then we had very good relationships with the four distant friends even during the Manmohan Singh government.

It is our geo-strategic compulsion to befriend the United States in the post-Cold War years as China has virtually encircled us. But the problem is can President Donald Trump ever be trusted? If Europe, with which the United States has such an symbiotic relationship, is unable to rely on him, how can India?

None else but the President of European Council Donald Tusk, on May 16 said: ‘With friends like that, who needs enemies?’ He said so after the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal made three years back.

A day later Trump hit back stating that he was not bothered by criticism from the European Council President Donald Tusk and accused the EU of being “terrible” to the United States on trade.

The relationship between the United States and Europe has reached such a low point, despite a million American soldiers laying down their lives fighting for Allied Powers in the two World Wars. And despite the United States helping rebuild Western Europe and war-ravaged Britain and France become nuclear powers.

Similarly, if trusted allies in East Asia like South Korea and Japan, especially the former, are feeling let down by the flip flop of Trump on talks with North Korea, how can a country like India rely on him ? His decision to dissociate the US from Trans-Pacific partnership came as a big surprise for countries on both sides of the Pacific.

In the same way, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Emirates, who stand solidly behind Trump, are finding themselves in an embarrassing situation when Washington decided to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

The problem with India is that it has put too many eggs in Trump’s basket. It seems that realisation has dawned upon the Indian government that the United States, especially under Trump, may not prove to be an all-weather friend as the erstwhile Soviet Union. Perhaps this prompted Modi to pay visits to Wuhan and Sochi to informally meet Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.

Trump’s fickle-mindedness has landed friends like India in a tight spot. It will have to re-draw its strategy in the Middle East after the US decision to impose sanctions on Iran.

India understands that never in the recent decades have Russia and China been so close and they both have very good relationship with Pakistan as well as Iran. Afghanistan cannot ignore these two great powers, in spite of the fact that there are still a few thousand American forces stationed in that country.

China, with the Belt and Road Initiative, has been breathing down India’s neck. India’s objection to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which passes through Pak-Occupied Kashmir, is understandable. But we do not seem to have any strategy in dealing with the Chinese train coming in full speed to Kathmandu. Any Chinese presence in Nepal is a matter of concern as we have open border with the Himalayan Republic. One way or the other we have pushed Kathmandu towards Beijing.

Our distant friends are least bothered as to how should we tackle problems in our vicinity.

Diplomacy is more than globe-trotting by the Prime Minister or invitation to foreign dignitaries on the occasion of Republic Day. It is something played more silently and deftly