Japan set to elect new prime minister to succeed Fumio Kishida

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect a new leader today, 27 September, to succeed prime minister Fumio Kishida.

The race is expected to be fiercely contested, with none of the nine candidates assured of an outright majority in the first round of voting.

The election will decide the next prime minister of Japan, as the LDP holds a majority in its parliament.

A total of 736 votes will be cast: 368 from LDP lawmakers and 368 from rank-and-file members. If no candidate secures a majority in the first round, the top two will proceed to a runoff later in the day.

In the first round, votes from rank-and-file members are crucial, as support among lawmakers is divided. However, in the runoff, the balance of power shifts. While the number of lawmakers' votes remains the same, grassroots votes are reduced to one per each of the LDP’s 47 prefectural chapters, giving more influence to Diet members.

The race, the first LDP leadership change since 2021, has drawn a record nine candidates, all pledging to renew the party. Former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba (67), youngest candidate Shinjiro Koizumi (43, and economic security minister Sanae Takaichi (63) are currently leading the pack, according to Kyodo News.

However, none is guaranteed a victory in the first round.

Shigeru Ishiba, a defence policy expert known for his regional revitalisation efforts, is popular among local supporters; but has struggled to gain backing from party lawmakers. This marks his fifth bid for the LDP leadership after four failed attempts.

Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, is making his first run for the LDP's top post. Some see him as a fresh face for the party, while others question his experience.

Sanae Takaichi, backed by conservatives associated with late prime minister Shinzo Abe, could make history as Japan’s first female prime minister. This is her second bid for the leadership, and her stance on security has garnered support from right-wing sections within the party.

Other prominent contenders include former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi (49), chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi (63), foreign minister Yoko Kamikawa (71), former health minister Katsunobu Kato (68), digital minister Taro Kono (61) and LDP secretary general Toshimitsu Motegi (68).

The election comes as voter confidence in the LDP has been shaken by a slush funds scandal. Whoever takes over will face the task of restoring party credibility. The new leader will also have to navigate a fragile economic recovery amid rising costs, while managing security challenges posed by China, North Korea, and Russia.

Speculation is rife that the new prime minister may call a snap election before the year’s end. All three leading candidates—Koizumi, Ishiba and Takaichi—have indicated their willingness to dissolve the House of Representatives for a snap election.

This vote follows the main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party, chose its own leadership line-up earlier this week, selecting former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda to lead the party. Noda previously served as Japan's premier from 2011 to 2012.