Iran in turbulence: The plane crash and downfall of public trust

The Ukrainian plane crash happened just a few hours after Iran attacked two US military bases in Iraq. Entire Iran was exhilarated at the news of this attack the next morning. It was the first ever direct attack on a US military base after the Second World War. The news of the plane crash came at the same time but it got overshadowed as everybody was talking about the missile strikes. The same morning, the Supreme Leader described the missile attack on US bases as a “slap” on the enemy’s face in his speech which was broadcast live. He also expressed his condolences for the victims of the plane crash.

As the news wave over the missile attacks and excitement came down, information about the victims of plane crash, their personal stories and their families started to spread. Sadly, it was a cheap flight chosen by so many Iranian students studying abroad. Out of the 176 victims, at least 130 were Iranians and many were going to Toronto via Kyiv. In a normal situation, it could be a big disaster and there would be at least one day of public mourning. But it was overshadowed by the euphoria over the missile attacks.

A video of the plane crash first appeared on the social media. It was recorded by an anonymous witness and looked suspicious. Though it was recorded by a mobile camera, there was no shaking and there was no evidence of the man or woman behind the camera getting shocked by the crash. Questions arose about the source of the video. It was as if someone was expecting a crash in the middle of the desert.

Just one and a half hours after the incident, Al-Hadath news agency, on Twitter, posted that the air crash was because of an “Iranian missile out of human error”. Soon all the anti-government Iranians journalists, TV channels and news agencies started saying the crash was due to an Iranian anti-aircraft missile.

When US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau brought up the possibility of the plane crash because of an Iranian missile, international pressure on Iran increased and the opposition started to blame the government about it. While officials were inviting everyone to wait for the result of technical investigations, Iranian activists defended the government on social media, saying that international pressure for investigations on the plane crash was actually aimed to divert attention from the attack on the US bases.

The most shocking moment for Iran came when Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and President Hassan Rouhani announced the crash was actually because of an Iranian anti-aircraft missile fired due to human error. The official statement said that the aerospace forces were on high alert due to the possibility of a US response just a few hours after the missile attacks on US bases. The Ukrainian plane diverted from its route and got close to a military base and the surface-to-air missile (SAM) operator made the catastrophic mistake.

Same day, General Haji Zadeh, the commander of the aerospace forces, attended a TV interview and said the delay in announcing the cause of the crash was because investigations were still going on. He also said he was in the western part of the country that night, leading the operation on US bases. He said when he heard of this incident, he “truly wished he would die”.

As this news came in, mourning for the victims was filled with a sense of anger and disbelief. On last Saturday night, at a memorial of the victims of the plane crash, the attendees started chanting slogans against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the government. Surprisingly, Robert Macaire, the UK’s Ambassador in Tehran participated and was arrested. He told Diplomatic Police that he was on his way back from the barber when he was found in the protest site. But he later tweeted that he was there to pay respect to the British victims in the air crash.

Now, as a lot of social media activists, including the supporters of the regime, are angry and feel betrayed, because of the three-day delay in announcing the real cause of the crash, a lot of memorials are turning into political protests against the regime. They are extensively covered by London-based TV channels, especially BBC Persian.

But analysts are also talking about the honesty of the government and the IRGC to take full responsibility, apologising to the families of the victims and their readiness to pay full compensation. Some analysts have pointed out three days are not really a long delay for a primary investigation.

Having said it, there is still a lot of tension in the air and also a lot of unanswered questions about this “Human Error” which needs further investigations.

The sweetness of unity after Qassem Soleimani’s death is gone and Iran is back to the old binary of anti-regime and pro-government entrenchments.

The Supreme Leader is going to perform the Friday prayers this week after about 10 years. It shows the gravity of the situation. Iran is passing this historical curve and whatever be the outcome, historians will talk about this moment in future.

It was a bitter moment when Qassem Soleimani was martyred in Iraq by US forces. It was a thrilling moment and incredible experience seeing all Iranians unite in solidarity and lauding the missile attacks on US bases in Iraq. But the plane crash changed it all.

I’m writing this piece sitting in my office in Tehran’s central area. I can see a pro-government group marching in the street against the recent protests. You can see the tension on the faces on the street. Iran is passing through a very turbulent time.