Gulf crisis: How Qatar-Saudi ties got ‘trumped’

If you are interested in global mess and it is not happening yet, just invite Donald Trump and the mess will surely follow. If you still have any doubts about what I say, look at the Saudi-Qatar mess. What a mess! No one expected that Saudi Arabia, along with Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Libya, Maldives and Yemen will overnight sever diplomatic ties with Qatar—without any notice.

After all, Qatar is a member of the Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and is also a part of the Saudi-led Sunni coalition of Arab nations. Yet, the Saudis, along with four other predominantly Sunni countries, took the extreme step of breaking off diplomatic ties and also cut off both land and air traffic with Qatar.

What was the provocation for such a move that normally takes place in a war like situation? None apparently. Yet, the hidden villain of creating a war-like situation where none existed between the Saudis and the Qataris is none but American President Donald Trump.

All was going well between these Arab neighbours. They were almost on the same page in the region. But, Trump’s recent trip to Saudi Arabia proved to be a game changer in the region. There were two spin-offs from Trump’s first foreign visit after taking charge. First, the American President not just embraced but publicly announced that Saudi would be the leader of the Sunni-led Muslim world against Islamic terrorism; and, second, America would be the partner of the Sunni alliance against Shia Iran.

It was enough for the Saudis to act tough in the region. And, they conveyed it through the move to isolate Qatar which they charged with supporting Sunni “terrorism and Iranian designs in the region”.

Well, the Saudi monarchy was not too happy with its Qatari counterpart for some time now. The House of Saud always considered itself as the unquestioned leader of the Sunni world because Islam originated from Saudi Arabia with its two most important pilgrimage centres, Mecca and Medina, being located there. Besides, Saudi Arabia is the known funder of almost all the Sunni madrasas that makes them sort of Islamic world-funders in one way or the other.

Qatar, too, is a petro-dollar rich state with a tiny population of around 2.5 million. It so happened that the Qatar Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, had started taking interest in regional Arab politics. For instance, Qatar had financially backed Muslim Brotherhood Government in Egypt which was later replaced by General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s military-backed regime who continued to rule the country. Saudi did not like the Qatari move because Muslim Brotherhood was also the pretender of the Sunni Islamic world leadership.

Qatar has also been maintaining some sort of back channel relations with Iran. They, for instance, recently paid handsome amount of money as ransom to some Muslim extremist groups operating in Syria to get nearly two dozen Qatari nationals who were held hostage by an Iranian-backed group. Besides, Qataris are also reported to have funded some Islamic terror groups operating in Syria and Iraq, something which rich Saudi nationals are also reported to have done.

So, Saudis were itching to fix Qatar for becoming a bit too bold and ambitious in the region. Once Trump accepted the Saudis as the unquestioned leader of the Sunni world, it gave them the opportunity to clip the wings of an emerging rival.

Qatar stands isolated in the region. It is surrounded by the sea on three sides with its only road border being with Saudi Arabia. Its major food and essential supplies come through the Saudi route, which is now cut off. Besides, Qatar maintains a heavy American base. Since the Saudi-US alliance is going strong under the Trump leadership, Qatar will have no option but to give in to the Saudi strong-arm tactics.

Interestingly, the stand-off between Qatar and Saudi with its allies will not have any major impact on India as the issue is confined to the West Asian region where India is not a strategic player. India’s only stake is that 65,000 Indian ex-patriots working in Qatar remain unaffected due to this crisis.

Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj has already assured the country that all is well with Indians working both in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. So, India need not bother much about what is going on within the Sunni world politics except to keep safe distance from the both as far as this issue is concerned.

However, Trump has already disturbed the Sunni world balance by crowning the Saudis as the unquestioned leader of the Sunni world. It may suit American short-term interest like Trump signing nearly $1.5-billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia. But, in this era of fast-changing global order, Trump’s West Asian doctrine may lead to many unpleasant eruptions like the ongoing Saudi-Qatari diplomatic row.

Zafar Agha is the Editor-in-chief of Qaumi Awaaz, a sister publication of National Herald