Focus of climate talks should be on mobilising $1 trillion per year by 2030: Report

Negotiations on climate finance at the COP29 United Nations climate change summit in Baku should be focused on mobilising $1 trillion per year by 2030 in external finance from all sources for investments necessary by emerging market and developing countries other than China, to deliver the Paris Agreement, and about $1.3 trillion by 2035, a new report by the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance said on Thursday.

The report warns: “Any shortfall in investment before 2030 will place added pressure on the years that follow, creating a steeper and potentially costly path to climate stability.” “The less the world achieves now, the more we will need to invest later. Delayed action means we will need to mobilise even larger sums in shorter timeframes to catch up on critical targets. “Additionally, investment needs for adaptation and resilience, as well as loss and damage and restoration of nature, will rise sharply as climate and nature risks escalate.”

The group, co-chaired by Amar Bhattacharya, Vera Songwe and Nicholas Stern, has been supporting the deliberations on the climate finance agenda under successive COP Presidencies since COP26. It was tasked to help develop and put forward policy options and recommendations to encourage and enable the public and private investment and finance necessary for delivery of the commitments, ambition, initiatives and targets of the Paris Agreement, reinforced by the Glasgow Climate Pact, the Sharm el-Sheikh agenda, and the COP28 Global Climate Finance Framework.

This is the third report published by the group. The report is published as countries negotiate at COP29 a “new collective quantified goal” (NCQG) for financial support for developing countries beyond 2025, in response to a decision made at the COP21 United Nations climate change summit in Paris in 2015. Countries agreed that the new goal should be set before 2025 from “a floor of $100 billion per year.”

The report was launched at COP29 at a special event with Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The report concludes: “We estimate that the global projected investment requirement for climate action is around $6.3-6.7 trillion per year by 2030, of which $2.7-2.8 trillion is in advanced economies, $1.3-$1.4 trillion in China, and $2.3–2.5 trillion in emerging market and developing countries (EMDCs) other than China.

“These latter countries will account for almost 45 per cent of the average incremental investment needs from now to 2030 but they have been falling behind, especially Sub-Saharan Africa. “For 2035, we estimate global investment requirements for climate action to be around $7-8.1 trillion per year, with advanced economies needing $2.6-3.1 trillion, China $1.3-1.5 trillion, and EMDCs other than China requiring $3.1-3.5 trillion. “These needs are our estimations of what is required for delivery on the Paris Agreement, and the investments will also make a vital contribution to sustainable growth and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.”