Can British PM Boris Johnson, caught in a trap, survive this week?

Another tumultuous week in British politics looms. On Monday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has undertaken to reintroduce a bill in the House of Commons to trigger an early general election. Later in the week, the United Kingdom’s Supreme Court will adjudicate on a challenge to prorogation of Parliament.

Johnson has practically no chance of obtaining the two-thirds majority he needs to force a midterm election. As for the judicial process, the petitioner Gina Miller backed by former prime minister, John Major, a Conservative predecessor of Johnson, lost in the High Court. It remains to be seen if the higher court takes a different view.

The outcome of the legal proceedings has become less crucial from the perspective of Johnson’s opponents, since they have already succeeded in passing legislation which it would appear compels him to take no-deal off the table in leaving the European Union (EU), something he was seemingly ready to embrace.

Indeed, he gave the impression this was his preference, since there was of late no sign of serious engagement between Britain and the EU in searching for an agreement.

Johnson is visibly a lonely figure. His barrister wife Marina Wheeler, an anchor to him, sought divorce last year after a 25-year marriage. His children are said to have sided with their mother. His brother Jo resigned as a minister in his government on Thursday. Normally upbeat and a persuasive public speaker, he now appears subdued and without spark as an orator. A lack of support from his family may have taken a toll on him.

It is astonishing that less than seven weeks into his term there is talk of his resignation. It emphasises the intractable circumstances of a country wanting to extricate itself from the EU.

Europe has bedevilled British Conservative party prime ministers from as far back as Margaret Thatcher. The last two – David Cameron and Theresa May – have directly lost their crowns because of the civil war in the party over the issue.

Johnson in his ambition to become prime minister recklessly promised a Brexit by 31 October with or without a deal to his party members, the majority of whom are anti-EU. He allegedly plotted with unelected advisers, who are neither members of the Conservative party nor civil servants, to thwart MPs from scuttling his apparent pursuit of a no-deal exit.

The plan involved suspending parliament for five weeks this and next month, thereby minimising the operational window for lawmakers. Simultaneously, the MPs researched ways and means of advancing their cause.

They had an affronted speaker, John Bercow, on their side, who of course could not violate conventions and precedents, which govern parliamentary practice in Britain in the absence of a written constitution. He, though, found a way of upholding the sovereignty of parliament.

With the House of Lords endorsing the bill passed by the Commons, and the British monarch Queen Elizabeth II likely to grant her assent, it is unimaginable that Johnson to feed his ego will break the law by not seeking an extension of Brexit to at least 31 January. Unless he has a devious, yet to be disclosed pathway to circumvent the legislation, he has to adhere, fashion a deal with the EU or quit office.

The past week, with bruising defeats in parliament, 21 Conservative MPs voting against him, including Philip Hammond, who was chancellor of the exchequer in Theresa May’s government which preceded Johnson’s, and Nicholas Soames, grandson of Johnson’s idol Sir Winston Churchill, has left him staggering.

The opposition, having tasted blood, do not appear to be in a mood to relent. Indeed, they are unlikely to offer an election to Johnson unless it is certain that no-deal is out of the way.

While he has stirred support from Brexiteers as well as people fed up with the delay and uncertainty over implementing the verdict of the 2016 referendum, he has also hardened hostility towards him among Remainers and those who wish to part company with the EU in an orderly manner, without shocks to the UK economy.

Besides, there is also no guarantee he will win a majority if he is allowed to call an election, since the extreme nationalist anti-EU Brexit party could disadvantageously infiltrate into Conservative votes.

Johnson publicly promised German Chancellor Angela Merkel he would come up with a technological solution by 20 September to negate the need for a hard border between North Ireland (which is British territory) and the Republic of Ireland.

There is little expectation of this happening. Checks and stoppages on the frontier would violate the 1998 Good Friday treaty between the UK and the Republic, which guarantees free movement between the two on the Irish isles.

To preserve the Good Friday pact as well as honour Britain’s desire to leave the EU without remaining a part of the single market, the EU proposed a “back-stop” or literally a customs border in the middle of the sea that divides Ireland from mainland Britain. May agreed to this, but couldn’t carry the Commons with her.

Johnson launched his innings as prime minister by flatly rejecting the back-stop. If he now abandons this position, half his cabinet will forsake him.

The EU maintains the clause is non-negotiable, unless Britain can conjure a viable alternative. Clearly, the EU will not remove the safety valve of a back-stop on the basis of undemonstrated and uninstalled technology.

So, how will Johnson escape the trap?