Varanasi is no longer looking like a cakewalk for BJP this time as the party sweats for votes

The Prime Minister has been camping in Varanasi for the past three days. Dozens of Union Ministers, state ministers, RSS functionaries and an estimated 70 thousand party workers have been campaigning door-to-door in the PM's Parliamentary constituency. A televised temple run and a big road show by the PM was organized on Friday for greater impact. TV channels as usual gave the PM saturation coverage and the anchors seemed sanguine that BJP is once again invincible in Varanasi. Yet, for the first time BJP doesn't appear confident about the outcome even in Varanasi district.

The Prime Minister playing the 'Damru' and posing for pictures and stopping at a non-descript tea stall selected carefully, raised eyebrows. Why would the PM have to do this in a city he calls home and especially after he kicked up so much fuss in Punjab over his security? This flies in the face of claims made by the BJP of a cakewalk in the state. The hard work and last ditch efforts would not be required if this was indeed a cakewalk and BJP confident of retaining the eight assembly seats in Varanasi. Could there be any truth in the reading of some analysts that ‘BJP is in big trouble and the Prime Minister is fighting a battle to save his constituency for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections?'

Kashi, as Varanasi is popularly known, since before 2014, has been known as home to Hindutva. From the days of Hindu Mahasabha and Bharatiya Jan Sangh the area remained a political bastion of the Hindu right wing. People also claim that the Hindi, Hindu, Hindustan war cry was first raised in this city. It’s the city people credit as the birthplace of modern Hindi and Devanagari script. So, the city has everything to make BJP feel at home. So, what is troubling the party?

On Friday, March 4, the day before campaigning ended on Saturday for the seventh and the last phase of UP polls, Varanasi saw a show of strength by three major contenders, i.e. the BJP, Samajwadi Party and the Congress. While the Prime Minister tried to re-energize his party cadres with a road show, the road show by the Samajwadi Party later in the evening was equally big. Both Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and Rahul Gandhi also addressed a public rally in Varanasi. All three shows were shown on TV channels and everyone noticed the lack of enthusiasm of BJP supporters in the PM's road show. The usual spark was missing. It could be fatigue but it showed.

Is BJP losing Varanasi? “ It is not easy to say. BJP still remains strong in Varanasi North, Varanasi Cantonment and Varanasi South”, claims Ajay Singh who teaches political science in one of the public Schools. “BJP holds Varanasi South since 1989, Varanasi North since 2012 and Varanasi Cantonment since 1991”, he points out and says that while BJP may still retain these three seats, it doesn't seem as easy as it was in 2017.

In Varanasi North, Samajwadi Party looks to have put up a stiff challenge this time while in Varanasi Cantonment Congress Candidate, former MP Rajesh Mishra, is the dark horse who can cause a major upset. Winning Ajagara (SC), Rohiniya, Pindra, Shivpur and Sewapuri seats also remain a big challenge for team Modi, considering caste equations and the way opposition parties are eating into the BJP’s core vote, say old timers.

Another major concern for BJP in Varanasi district is the polarization of Dalit, OBC and Muslim voters. Disgruntled Brahmin community is posing a big threat for the ruling party. Also, joblessness, deaths during the pandemic, immature handling of the economy and the failure of businesses has crafted unforeseen pockets of anti-BJP constituencies in urban areas. If a large chunk of Brahmins decide to vote against the BJP and the stressed voters decide to remain away from the polling booths, BJP will be in big trouble.

“For years, we are living in trouble and no one is there to take care of us”, says Richa Khatri, a resident of GPO area. “It doesn’t matter who wins or who loses. We need someone who can come to us in crises like the pandemic and ensure timely medical aid to save our lives”, she adds. Sanjay Singh Rajput of Godoliya says, “ while national issues are important, we are electing an MLA who won’t go to Ukraine for relief or to Pakistan to fight”, adding that his vote will go to a party who may ensure a government job for which he is preparing for the last four years.

What’s troubling BJP and Modi is the obvious anger among sections of people in Varanasi. For the first time in the last eight years vocal opposition to both and enthusiasm for the opposition is visible. People are gathering in large numbers at the political rallies and road shows of the opposition. “They possibly want to listen to their own Mann ki Baat” and doubts which leaders like Akhilesh Yadav, Priyanka Gandhi, Om Prakash Rajbhar, Swami Prasad Maurya and Mayawati are addressing.

For BJP it’s not just saving the constituency of the Prime Minister but also its pride in the city that remains the most important part of its agenda after Ayodhya.

If they lose the temple cities of Ayodhya, Kashi and Mathura, which no longer appears implausible this time, BJP and the Sangh Parivar would lose their authority and momentum. This is a do or die battle for them and as BJP loves to put it “for the first time in history”, it is sweating, huffing and puffing to hold its citadel in the eastern heartland.

(The writer is an independent commentator. Views are personal)