UP election result: Why did Opposition fail? 5 reasons for their poor performance despite spirited campaign

Despite a spirited campaign against the BJP in UP assembly elections, the main Opposition led by the Samajwadi Party, as per the latest trend, has failed to dislodge the saffron party from power. And lost a golden opportunity to change the politics of India via UP.

Since 1985, people of Uttar Pradesh have voted for change and no chief minister, be it Mulayam Singh Yadav or Mayawati was given the mandate for the second consecutive term.

But Yogi Adityanath-led BJP in Uttar Pradesh has broken the jinx.

BJP is set to form the government in India’s most important state again after running a government for five years from 2017 to 2022.

A broad analysis of the poll trends underscores that

1) The Opposition failed to capture the imagination of masses

2) And there is no alternative to the politics of Hindutva in Hindi heartland.

According to the latest trends, the BJP led alliance was leading in the 261 seats, SP led opposition camp was leading in 137 seats. Congress and BSP stood at third and fourth rank with just two seats.

Here are the five reasons to explain why Opposition failed in UP despite farmers' protest, raging unemployment and inflation reaching new peak.

1. Farmers' protest failed to make electoral impact:

Should it be described as the failure of the farmers movement? Many think so.

What was touted as the strongest social mobilization against the BJP in the last seven years, the one-year long farmers' protest failed to make an electoral impact in this election – the trends show.

Under the aegis of the SKM, the one-year long protest which hogged the headlines across the world failed to fetch votes for the Opposition.

Swaraj India leader and one of the very prominent faces of the farmers protest, Yogendra Yadav explained, “We have prepared the pitch…but we are not the players”.

2. Split of opposition votes:

The second important factor that worked as a spoiler for the Opposition is the division of Opposition votes.

In Western UP, BSP fielded many Muslim candidates and Owaisi led AIMIM fielded 66 candidates which eventually led to the division of Opposition votes, say analysts.

UP watchers believe that BSP and AIMIM created confusion among Opposition votes and in many seats, BSP votes were transferred to the BJP. This led to the miserable performance of the Opposition in UP.

3. Lack of effective organisation at par with the RSS:

Experts believe that despite the fact that Akhilesh’s campaign struck a chord with people, the Opposition failed to match the mammoth BJP machinery and Modi-Yogi-Amit Shah triumvirate’s charismatic appeal.

Besides, RSS – the BJP’s parent organisation has played a decisive role.

Akhilesh Yadav, by stitching alliances with smaller parties tried to overcome the organisational weakness, but he failed to convert the resentment against the BJP into votes.

“During the door-to-door campaign, RSS cadres touched almost each and every household…conveyed benefits of the welfare schemes launched by the Yogi government and it worked,” said a UP watcher.

4. Non-Yadav OBC remained with the BJP:

All other OBC castes other than the Yadavs largely remained with the BJP, proves the trend.

BJP created a winning caste matrix by combining non-Yadav votes with the non-Jatav votes. The formula had successfully worked for the BJP in 2014, 2017 and 2019 elections. The non-Yadav, non-Jatav formula seems to have worked for the BJP in the 2022 elections also.

5. No effective counter to Hindutva politics:

The opposition failed to produce an effective counter to Hindutva politics, feel UP watchers.

Though the Opposition tried to make unemployment, Covid deaths and job loss due to the lockdown a poll plank, yet it failed miserably as Hindutva politics dominated the discussion since the beginning.

Amit Shah kicked off his campaign from Kairana and Hijab controversy fueled the Hindutva sentiments almost at the same time which led to the demolition of the Opposition camp and victory of the ruling party.