Lok Sabha Polls 2019: UDF, LDF in Kerala slugfest

With Kerala going to vote on Tuesday, the mercury in the political thermometer is shooting up, notwithstanding the heatwave in the state. It’s a battle for survival and prestige for the Congress-led United Democratic Front, the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

For the UDF, it is to shore up the numbers to enable them to form a government at the Centre. For the CPI(M), it is a battle for survival. They need the numbers to ensure they retain their national party status. And for the BJP, it is to ensure that they win a seat in the only state that has never sent a saffron representative to Parliament.

“The state CPI(M) has a big responsibility this time as the national leadership, in which Kerala has a big share, looks up to the state to give the party a respectable number in the Lok Sabha. To optimise its strength, it has asked all independents backed by it to fight on the party symbol this time,” explains BRP Bhaskar, veteran journalist and a senior human right activist.

Kerala has 20 parliamentary seats of which the star wars are confined to Thiruvananthapuram, Pathanamthitta and Vadakara. Even the presence of BJP’s Union Minister Alphons Kannanthanam doesn’t make Ernakulam a difficult constituency. It’s a battle between the LDF’s P Rajeev and the UDF’s Hibi Eden, with the latter being tipped as the favourite to win.

The saffron party, which unleashed violence in the state in the name of Sabarimala agitation, hoping to turn it on the lines of Ayodhya, expects to win at least one seat this time around and they are banking on their candidate Kummanam Rajasekharan to defeat Shashi Tharoor in Thiruvananthapuram.

“Kummanam doesn’t have the stature that O Rajagopal has. People forget that. Everyone knows that Kummanam is a hardcore RSS worker. The minorities are all likely to vote for the UDF. The votes from the fishermen communities will go to Tharoor. The BJP is banking on the Nair and Ezhava votes both of which will get split across the LDF, the UDF and the BJP,” explains Meera Velayudhan, a senior policy analyst.

“The Nadar community, which has considerable numbers of voters in Thiruvanathapuram does not have their own candidate. They are expected to vote for Kummanam because their community is with him. They might swing the votes. The Nairs in the state capital, unlike in other parts of the state, think of themselves as the subjects of a king and not as citizens, which is why the BJP has had an undercurrent in Thiruvananthapuram. This attitude favours the BJP,” says Sunny Kapikkad, a social activist and writer on issues of Dalit and Adivasi rights.

In Pathanamthitta, K Surendran’s campaign rallies haven’t been getting a rousing welcome even in the predominantly Hindu localities. Surendran has also avoided the minority areas including Eraviperoor, Nellad, Kumbanad and Mallappally. This is despite the presence of a number of RSS shakhas in Mallappally.

What makes Vadakara the scene of an intense drama is the presence of CPI(M) strongman P Jayarajan. He is one of the most powerful leaders of the party and the strongest in Kannur.

In fact, the Congress had delayed the announcement of its candidate after the announcement of Jayarajan. Even the sitting Congress MP Mullapally Ramachandran had declined to contest against Jayarajan citing administrative duties. It was then that the name of K Muraleedharan, former KPCC president and son of former CM K Karunakaran, was announced as the candidate. Known to be a fighter, Muraleedharan had earlier represented Kozhikode. He is the sitting MLA of Vattiyurkavu Assembly constituency in Thiruvananthapuram.

In Vadakara, Congress has kept alive the issue of the murder of TP Chandrasekharan. TP, as he was known as, was known to be honest and broke away from the CPI(M) and founded the Revolutionary Marxist Party (RMP) in 2009, based in Onchiyam at Vadakara. He was hacked to death in 2012 allegedly by Left party workers and P Jayarajan is also accused of involvement in the murder. It was a murder that rocked Kerala and TP’s widow KK Rama has backed Muraleedharan.

While local issues are aplenty, Kerala voters are known to vote for the Lok Sabha elections keeping in mind national issues. “Election results of the two-front era reveal a pattern. In the Assembly elections, the people vote them to power alternately. In the local bodies elections, the LDF does better than the UDF. In the Lok Sabha elections, the UDF generally fares better than the LDF. However, there have been times when the LDF has had the upper hand in LS elections. This happened in times of acute factionalism in the Congress,” points out BRP Bhaskar.

According to him, the advantage the UDF has had over the LDF in the Lok Sabha elections stems from the recognition that the Congress is a party in contention for power at the Centre.

“Rahul Gandhi’s entry into the Kerala poll scene has created a new enthusiasm in the rank and file of not only the Congress but all UDF parties,” contends Bhaskar.

Kerala has had a stable two-front system for three decades. With state politics centred on the UDF and the LDF, it has been difficult for a third force to emerge.

“However, the BJP’s failure to get a foothold in the state cannot be attributed to the stranglehold of the fronts. Its predecessor, Jana Sangh, which operated in the pre-front era, too could make no headway. Its basic problem is that the Hindutva ideology is seen as contrary to the ideals of the Kerala Renaissance which envisaged a society free from caste differences and religious hatred. As the party wielding power at the Centre, the BJP is in a better position now than before. The weakening of the Renaissance spirit due to a host of reasons is another factor favourable to it. It has forged an alliance with the Ezhava group (Thushar Vellapally’s BDJS) which has been the mainstay of the Left for decades. However, it remains to be seen whether the NDA can transform the two-front system into a three front one,” elaborates Bhaskar.

“But the Ezhava masses don’t support the BJP, only a few rich elements with the BDJS support BJP. The major vote share from the Ezhava community goes to the LDF,” points out Kapikkad.

In fact, BJP doesn’t stand much of a chance in the state, contends Bhaskar. “The BJP has been within striking distance in a couple of LS constituencies for some time. The Modi government’s poor record, the unhelpful stand it took when floods ravaged the state and the surviving influence of the Renaissance spirit may come in

the way of full realisation of the advantage it possesses as the largest national party and the one with a fancied chance to return to power, albeit with a reduced majority,” says Bhaskar.

Supporting this is Sunny Kapikkad. “BJP has been using Sabarimala to polarise Hindus. But, it hasn’t happened as much. The problem is that there is no one to counter the Hindu polarisation. The Left began to counter it, but didn’t carry it through. If they had done it well, they could have used it to their advantage,” explains Kapikkad.

This election has seen polarising attempts on ground. “Media has been playing up the chances of BJP even though one doesn’t see it on ground. There are only reports of Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s speeches but the Prime Minister’s speeches are shown. Where do you find objective and neutral coverage? The media is also under a lot of pressure. Otherwise, how could there be news items stating that a Muslim party’s green flag is communal? There is also much polarisation on the caste basis too, which wasn’t very much evident earlier,” adds Meera.

Adding to this is a large number of young, first-time voters in Kerala and women voters.

In Kerala, there are around 2,61,750 first-time voters and they are likely to play a decisive role. According to data released by the Kerala Election Commission office, 78.29 per cent of the women voted in the state, while in comparison only 76.33 per cent of the men voted. Attingal has the highest number of women voters (7,05,109) followed by Pathanamthitta (6,98,718) and Thiruvananthapuram (6,90,695).

“The UDF is expected to get more seats than the LDF. But, it is difficult to say what the Kerala voter will choose and what the impact of several issues are likely to be. It is the state which brought back Indira Gandhi supporter K Karunakaran as the Chief Minister even after Emergency,” points out Velayudhan.