India looking at tough times post Russia-Ukraine conflict, agree experts

“I was India’s Finance Minister when the US last imposed sanctions on our country. I can say with authority that sanctions are more bitter on the imposing country and not on the country on which the sanctions are imposed,” says former Union Minister Yashwant Sinha, explaining why he believes sanctions on India by the US are extremely unlikely despite India’s refusal to back the UN resolution condemning Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Even as he pointed out that the US had not acted against even its allies in Western Europe still receiving Russian gas, he was vindicated when President Biden banned import of Russian gas from the US. Several European countries were not part of the ‘ban’ because of their energy concerns. “Germany and many other countries would go cold if the US imposes sanctions on its Western allies,” Sinha said.

A primary reason for the US not imposing sanction on India is because India is dependent on Russian defence equipment and spares. If the supplies stop, India would be militarily weakened against China and that would be against US interests. “US is keen to have India as an ally,” confirms South Asian politics and security expert Myra MacDonald. But she also added a word of caution. “Everyone should be wary of making predictions right now. If it (the conflict) continues to worsen, impatience with India will grow,” she said.

Professor of Peace and Conflict Research at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University in Sweden Ashok Swain however believes “very rough days are ahead in the US-India relationship. India’s public image internationally is not what it used to be. It has been damaged considerably for some years due to the decline of democracy and its treatment of minorities.”

India’s dilemma is because “Russia is our all-weather friend,” says Sinha. However, Professor Swain holds that India had discarded non-alignment and moved to the US camp after signing the LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement) and joining the QUAD against China. “The Indian position is neither morally correct nor in line with its ongoing foreign and security policies. It seems Indian foreign policy doesn’t have a long-term vision anymore,” quipped Prof Swain.

Professor Siddiq Wahid at the Centre for Policy Research believes India, to borrow Fareed Zakaria’s words, is seeking to become ‘a multi-aligned state’. “I wonder how successful that will be as a policy in the emerging cold war 2. scenario,” he said.

Defence and strategic expert Ghazala Wahab holds that “from India’s perspective, abstention from voting was the only possible position on the conflict. It cannot openly oppose or support either side.”

But Myra MacDonald is not convinced. “As a matter of principle, India should be supporting Ukraine against the unjustified Russian invasion. This would be in line with a long-standing Indian position that national sovereignty must be respected,” she said, adding, “Where I see India going wrong is in allowing self-interest to bleed into its discussion on the principle, to the point of either finding excuses for Russia’s conduct or running through a litany of grievances about the West.”

Is India dependent on Russia? Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) recorded that 49.4 percent of India’s arms imports between 2016 and 2020 were from Russia. Most military equipment have long service life and cannot be changed overnight, thus requiring servicing, spares and upgrades, explains Wahab.

“More importantly, the Indian military has a comfort factor with Russian equipment, largely contracted through government-to- government agreements. So, even though we have diversified arms purchase, Russia remains our largest source,” she added.

Academician Radha Kumar however points out, “We would have been better off siding with the majority of member-states in the UN and it would certainly have generated more goodwill for the military transition away from Russian dependence.”

Former Ambassador Vishnu Prakash believes India is no longer as dependent on Russia as before. “If you look at the data, our dependence on Russia has come down drastically. We are opening up and would very much want to have options,” he said.

India’s QUAD dilemma: After India joined the QUAD, the Chinese were quick to react and said that the military alliance has been formed to target other countries and also denounced the Quad as a Cold War construct and a clique.

Force Magazine Editor and defense and strategic expert Ghazala Wahab warns that post the Russia-Ukraine war, the world will throw up many surprises and challenges. “It is too early to say if QUAD will be the future or something else,” she felt.

(The writer is an independent journalist)