Bihar: Survey predicts 29/40 Lok Sabha seats for RJD-Congress alliance

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his ally Prime Minister Narendra Modi could have a lot more to worry about than each’s share of seats to fight on in the next Lok Sabha polls, according to the predictions of a pre-poll survey released on July 17, 2018.

News outlet Spick Media Network, which in a pre-poll ‘Fate of the Nation’ survey released last month showed the DMK and AMMK gaining vastly electorally at the expense of AIADMK and BJP in Tamil Nadu, has now released a ‘Fate of Bihar’ survey. It predicts that the NDA in Bihar could receive a drubbing at the hands of Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal, in alliance with the Congress party.

Spick Media gives the RJD-Congress alliance 29 out of Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha seats and the NDA, including PM Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, Nitish’s Janata Dal (United) and Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party, only 7 out of the 40 seats. Spick said it could not make predictions for four of the 40 seats.

Spick gives a combined vote share of over 61% to the RJD and Congress in Bihar. The news outlet also said Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) had the largest vote share in the state among NDA parties.

Tejashwi Yadav most popular leader, Narendra Modi in 4th place

The Spick survey also claims that Nitish Kumar is no longer the most popular leader in the state. The incumbent chief minister has been pushed to second place by RJD Leader of the Opposition in the Bihar assembly and Lalu’s son, Tejashwi Prasad Yadav. In third place is Lalu himself, followed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This is in line with the survey’s other findings, which claims that respondents in Bihar are unhappy with the Central Government:

• Respondents in Bihar were “dissatisfied with the Central Government led by BJP under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi
• Respondents felt that the economic conditions of the country has worsened during the period 2014-2018
• Respondents feel that the Central Government led by the BJP has not fulfilled the essential needs of Bihar

“We never believe in surveys”, a senior BJP leader was quoted by Spick Media as saying.

Spick Media says its survey was conducted between June 8 and July 9, 2018 by 371 trained field investigators and 323 translators, in which 613 (371 investigators + 242 translators) met respondents directly. The first round of the Fate of the Nation-Fate of Bihar survey was conducted by IETech Group, Bangalore for Spick Media. The target size sample was 3,64,500 with an assembly constituency-wise target of about 1,500 respondents.

The entire survey findings can be viewed on Spick Media’s website.