Battleground Assam: Not an easy fight for ruling BJP

While coming from Dibrugarh to Guwahati by road, the election fervour is nothing like we are accustomed to seeing in the Hindi belt. There is more noise on TV and mobile phones than on the ground. If you talk to people, no one would give a clear reply. “Let’s see what happens,” is the usual, measured response.

There are four decisive factors in this election. One is the CAA, the other people from the tea estates, the third Congress-AIUDF alliance and the fourth is the people of Chhattisgarh campaigning for the Congress.

Citizenship Amendment Act: The elephant in BJP’s room
The BJP is trying its best to avoid mentioning the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in Assam. If you look at the newspapers and regional prime time debates, then it seems CAA is not an issue. But for a lot of people, this election is like a CAA-NRC referendum. The BJP is speaking with three different tongues on the issue in Assam, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu. People are angry, but the anger is not visible on the surface. The anger is not only with the CAA, but also over a range of things including Demonetisation, skyrocketing prices of oil and cooking gas and low wages.

BJP lacks a narrative…also the leader A major crisis of the BJP is that it does not have a fixed narrative. Its leaders still campaign like an opposition party, as if it was a Congress government in the last five years. They want to put the blame for their failures on the Congress. The tactic is to create a lot of noise so that people do not get a chance to ask questions.

On the other hand, there is Himanta Biswa Sarma who is not hiding his ambition. He is the most prominent face campaigning for BJP. The BJP has not been able to decide whether it should contest the elections under the leadership of its current Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal or it should declare Sarma as its CM face. Perhaps the top leadership found the indecision less risky than going ahead with anyone of them.

The northern Assam conundrum There were riots over the CAA in northern Assam that has 47 Assembly seats. Many people were killed and the agitations have still not stopped. This time around, the BJP cannot expect to repeat its 2017 feat on these 47 seats. Last time, BJP and allies had won a large number of seats in tea garden areas. The reason behind this was the party’s promise to raise the minimum wages of tea plantation workers to Rs 350. However, what BJP has given is too little too late in the form of Rs 217 as minimum wages, just ahead of the elections. Even then, there are many ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’.

But PM Narendra Modi wants these people to vote for him just because he has (as he claims) a connection with the tea. Modi claims to have sold tea at a railway station in Gujarat.

The Congress campaign On the other hand, there is a lot of preparation in the Congress camp. Around 400 party workers and leaders from Chhattisgarh, led by Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel, are working on the ground. The system for training, coordination and communication has been streamlined. The party has activated its ground presence down to the booth level after a long time. The Congress team is unitedly fighting the elections, though it had got a jolt after the death of former CM Tarun Gogoi. This time, tickets have been given after taking into consideration the feedback from panchayat and Tehsil level workers.

The Congress party’s agenda is positive and its five promises are easy to be understood by the people.

The power of the alliance The BJP is visibly rattled by the Jot or the alliance between Congress, AIUDF and other smaller parties. BJP’s only ploy is to discredit the alliance by spreading canards about Badruddin Ajmal and AIUDF, and divide the voters on communal lines.

BJP leaders claim in their speeches that their government did what could not be done in the last 70 years. But they do not tell what exactly they have done. The Congress leaders remind people how BJP has taken AIUDF’s support in the past. Against the communal polarisation, Bhupesh Baghel talks about Gautam Buddha and Kabir in his rallies. He also says that all the public sector assets that the Modi government is selling were made by the Congress governments over the decades.

On the other hand, there is the Assam Gana Parishad (AGP) that is in alliance with BJP. The AGP’s credibility has declined especially in the context of the CAA, say locals.

Outside of the two alliances, there is Akhil Gogoi's Rajor Dal. Gogoi has projected himself as the champion of Assamese asmita or cultural identity and has opposed the CAA. In a letter written from the hospital, he has alleged that the Modi government had offered him Rs 20 crore and bail if he joins hands with the BJP. The letter is not going to help the saffron party’s prospects in Assam.

(The author is an independent journalist. Views expressed are personal)