Battle for Bihar: A familiar, pre-poll sound and fury signifying little

F or the first time in three decades, Assembly elections are being held in Bihar without Lalu Prasad Yadav being the central figure. The former chief minister had campaigned vigorously in 2015 but his conviction in a fodder scam case, incarceration and ill-health are keeping him out of the campaign this year.

His son Tejashwi Yadav at 30 years of age is clearly no match to the stature and experience that his father had. But having served as a Deputy Chief Minister between 2015 and 2017, he has learnt to behave like a natural heir and successor of his father’s mantle. But many within the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and without are reluctant to accept him as a leader. The absence of Lalu Yadav and low acceptability of Tejashwi Yadav are, thus, handicaps that the opposition is finding difficult to overcome.

The TINA Factor: It is working to the advantage of Nitish Kumar and the NDA overcome a strong anti-incumbency and discontent among people. Even those who want to vote against him and the NDA seem uncertain about the performance of the opposition. This is also reflected in the ‘Muslim Mood’.

Nitish Kumar, it is acknowledged, has not pursued any anti-minority policy. On the contrary he has reined in the BJP. Not only have cow vigilantes been kept in check, all attempts to create communal trouble has been firmly nipped in the bud. Functional minority hostels, post-retirement benefit to minority college staff and other such measures have earned him the goodwill of the minority community. And BJP hotheads like Giriraj Kishore have been careful with what they say and do after 2017.

WOMEN voters were vocal supporters of Nitish Kumar after he introduced prohibition in the state. Although the policy led to revenue loss and a flourishing black market in liquor, it is not really known if the women are sufficiently disenchanted with Nitish Kumar to vote against him.

Too many small parties also make the Bihar election unpredictable. Ram Bilas Paswan, Upendra Kushwaha, Jitan Ram Manjhi, Pappu Yadav, Mukesh Sahni and of course Asaduddin Owaisi together may not win more than 20 odd seats in the 240-member Assembly but each of them can field many more candidates and ensure the defeat of one alliance or the other. In close contests, even a few thousand votes can affect the outcome. And all these leaders are not averse to punch much above their weight and take a chance because they have nothing to lose.

In 2015 despite Prime Minister Modi and Amit Shah making it a prestige issue, BJP failed to win more than 56 seats. While Amit Shah had camped in Patna then and had addressed as many or more election rallies than the PM, repeatedly saying that if BJP lost, there would be celebrations in Pakistan, they had failed to cut much ice with voters. They were pitted against the combined might of Lalu and Nitish Kumar then, both sons of the soil. Now with Nitish in the NDA and Lalu Prasad out of the picture, NDA clearly expects to do better.

The received wisdom in the state at this point in time is that neither alliance will win an absolute majority; in which case post-poll movement of parties and elected members might be crucial in government formation.

The state is primed for unexpected results. The only forecast one can make with some confidence is that neither alliance in the fray can bank on a landslide victory. “Who knows? Even Tejaswi can spring a surprise and plays a Dushyant Chautala in Bihar with Bhupendra Yadav playing the political match maker?” quipped a wag.

Khel abhi baqi hai, as they say.