AIMIM and Owaisi cast a shadow in West Bengal ahead of the assembly poll

Both Assam and Bengal go to polls during the summer of 2021. Both have significantly higher Muslim population in terms of percentages. But Assam already has its own version of AIMIM, Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF, which follows a toned-down version of Owaisi’s playbook.

Ajmal’s party is a deciding factor in Lower Assam of the Brahmaputra valley and a major contender in Barak Valley. Owaisi has been reluctant to disturb regional or state based outfits. And Assam is yet to figure in his public statements. So, we can probably assume that AIMIM will not contest in Assam.

That leaves us with Bengal, a state where Muslims account for around 28% of the population, spread across all the districts, but a majority in Uttar Dinajpur & Malda, bordering Seemanchal region of Bihar & Murshidabad districts.

Bengali Muslims are not a homogeneous or a monolithic community, in terms of language, culture or the way they practice religion. 8-10% have Urdu as their mother tongue, concentrated majorly in and around Calcutta and some urban centers like Asansol, Siliguri etc. The remaining 90% are spread all over the state, speaking various dialects and subdialects of Bangla.

The Left Front, in its heydays, used to hold sway over the Bangla speaking Muslims, while the urban Urdu speaking ones gravitated towards Congress. INC did manage to make inroads among Bangla speakers and created a solid and committed voter base in Middle & Northern Bengal, namely Uttar Dinajpur, Malda & Murshidabad.

The emergence of Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamul Congress saw a significant erosion of both Left Front & INC support base among Muslims across the state. Religion based parties are not a new phenomenon in Bengal. There have been experiments in the past. But most of them have been co-opted by the party in power, eventually.

2021 will see 2 formations vying for this constituency of voters, a possible LF & INC alliance & the TMC. And there is the prospect of AIMIM contesting in 20-25 seats, some of them bordering Bihar and Assam.

But so far, Owaisi is yet to find his “Akhtarul Iman” for Bengal, someone with a mass base within the community, one who could draw others like a magnet to the party. So, what could be the possible impact of AIMIM’s foray into Bengal?

If we look at the voting pattern from last year’s parliamentary elections, Muslims have consolidated behind TMC barring a few constituencies, where they backed the Congress. They backed the candidate who they felt was best equipped to stop BJP. This pattern is expected to continue, with Mamata Banerjee playing the ‘Bangali vrs outsiders’ card.

But questions can be and would be asked about her previous association with the saffron party as well the absence of any tangible work that has been done for the Muslims in Bengal. The LF-INC combine is surely going to bring these up. AIMIM will follow suit and raise the pitch by a few notches. But to what effect? Will it be enough to win seats or alter a few results?

AIMIM will get some votes in the urban areas. It should be remembered that MIM is an Urban party. The party will also get some support in Malda, districts with a sizeable Surjapuri community, the same community that forms the bulwark of Owaisi’s support base in neighboring Seemanchal of Bihar. The districts where it could do some tangible damage are Uttar Dinajpur & Murshidabad.

Uttar Dinajpur, specifically the area north of Raiganj is more Bihar than Bengal, culturally and linguistically. With a sizeable Surjapuri community, the region is just a continuum of Kishanganj, MIM’s power base in Bihar. Small incidents in Kishanganj have a ripple effect in areas surrounding Islampur & Dalkhola in Bengal & vice versa. Local issues like Urdu University and educational centers as well as autonomous development boards find resonance. Issues that have been neglected after repeated promises. Owaisi might just be able to tap into these and cause enough damage to TMC and benefit BJP, which has a consolidated voter base.

In Murshidabad, the Muslim voters are split precariously between INC & TMC. So much so that even a minor disruption could cause the pendulum to swing in favour of BJP, in at least 4-5 seats. So, a few thousand votes to AIMIM could alter the outcome in these seats.

Response of secular parties to AIMIM’s performance in Bihar could have been more nuanced, more mature and more backed by data. Calling out AIMIM for contesting in Bihar was immature and undemocratic. Blaming Muslims for voting for AIMIM and not MGB was bad politics. Pinning all the blame on Owaisi for their less than overwhelming performance was naïve.

They can ill afford to ignore Owaisi; and by blowing him up to be bigger than he actually is, they add to their disadvantage.

(The writer is a political analyst and has a keen interest in History)