Ahead of the no-trust vote: pros and the cons

With a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha, the Government expects allies like the Shiv Sena, Biju Janata Dal and the AIADMK to either vote for the Government or abstain from the House before voting. While the opposition hopes to show the mirror to the Government during the debate and wants the Government to respond to lynchings and mobs ruling the streets besides addressing other issues.

The stage is set for Act one, scene one of the drama of democracy ahead of the next general election.

Have the opposition walked into a trap by moving the no-confidence motion? The question gained currency ahead of the debate on Friday as the result appears to be a foregone conclusion. Unless NDA allies dramatically desert the Government, the treasury benches are expected to win the vote comfortably.

The question has also been raised because the time allotted to the opposition is one-third of the total time. The Government and its allies will have two-thirds of the time allotted to defend the Government. This is because time is allotted on the basis of the strength parties have in the House.

There is still interest in the debate because it remains to be seen how the Government rebuts the charges brought in by the TDP for betraying Andhra Pradesh and going back on its assurances. There is also interest to see how the Opposition succeed or fail to put the Government on the mat.

While the Opposition hope to show the mirror to the Government, the BJP wants to get a morale booster and expose chinks in opposition unity.

There is also a buzz whether after winning the no-trust vote, as is widely expected, the BJP would feel emboldened to call for an early general election.

1. For a no-confidence motion to be accepted, 50 members of the Lok Sabha are required to support it.

2. The motion was filed by TDP and AIADMK in the last session of Parliament as well. It was not allowed because the Speaker Sumitra Mahajan claimed she was unable to count the number of MPs because of the din in the House.

3. TDP, which pulled out of the NDA protesting against the denial of a special status and the promised financial assistance, had earlier this year pulled out its ministers too from the union ministry.

4. The NDA has 312 members in the Lok Sabha of which the present strength is 533. The halfway mark is 267 because of the 11 vacancies. The combined opposition has a strength of 152 in the House.

5. But the no-confidence motion has gained in importance because of the support lent by the Congress and the other opposition parties including the Left.

6. The Lok Sabha Speaker has allotted 3 hours and 33 minutes to the BJP alone for defending the Government. NDA allies have been allotted additional time according to their strength in the House.

7. The TDP, which has moved the motion, has been allotted 13 minutes and Congress, which is supporting the motion, 38 minutes to put across their views.

8. While a TDP member of the House will move the motion and be the first speaker, all eyes will be on Congress President Rahul Gandhi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi , who will reply to the debate.