3rd COVID wave may hit in 6 to 8 weeks, gap between waves shortening, we can't be lax: AIIMS Director

“Third wave (of Covid-19) is inevitable and it could hit the country within the next six to eight weeks... may be a little longer,” AIIMS chief Dr. Randeep Guleria told NDTV this morning.

Dr Guleria pointed out that India’s biggest challenge is vaccinating a huge population right now. He said, "A new wave can usually take up to three months but it can also take much lesser time, depending on various factors. Apart from Covid-appropriate behaviour, we need to ensure strict surveillance. Last time, we saw a new variant - which came from outside and developed here - led to the huge surge in the number of cases. We know the virus will continue to mutate. Aggressive surveillance in hotspots is required."

He focussed on the concerns that the new Delta-plus variant of the virus has caused about monoclonal antibody treatment, saying that a new approach will have to be taken to study the mutation. He added that an “aggressive genome sequencing” and a large network of labs is required to study the new variant.

The AIIMS director talked about the lack of Covid-appropriate behaviour that is being seen once again as cities have started unlocking and people are gathering in crowds. He added that a mini-lockdown is the only solution for any place which sees a rise in positivity rate beyond five percent, and unlocking needs to be done in a “graded manner”.

The Delhi High Court has already asked the state and central governments to prevent the virus surge by implementing strict measures for following Covid protocols in public, reported The Quint.

Dr. Guleria noted that a faster spread is likely as the virus is mutating and becoming more infectious after each wave. Experts have warned that Maharashtra could see as many as 8 lakh active cases at the peak of the third wave. He stressed, “We have to make sure fresh cases don't rise. Any healthcare system globally will tend to collapse with the unprecedented rise in infections.” In a study conducted by Reuters, medical experts had predicted that the third wave might hit India by October.

The AIIMS chief added that increasing the time between Covishield doses “may not be a bad” approach. He added that the 12-16 week gap between Covishield doses should be driven by science, and there should be strong data to back the decision. He noted that the UK has adopted a one-shot strategy for Astrazeneca and Pfizer vaccines, which can protect a “larger number of people”.