Surge in COVID-19 cases across Europe; over 15,000 cases a day expected in Delhi in winter

With autumn having set in Europe, COVID-19 cases have again begun surging across the continent with France and Spain leading the numbers, according to the World Health Organisation. In India too, cases are expected to spike in December.

In France, cities have been placed on high alert after Covid-19 cases crossed 18,000 per day. In the United Kingdom too, cases breached the 16k mark mid-week. Spain hit the six-month high in the last week of September, while in Italy it happened this week. Germany too has seen the number of cases crossing the 4k mark, which is close to the April peak of 6,000 cases.

France reported 18,071 new Covid-19 cases on October 9 and cities have been placed on maximum alert. As the number of patients requiring intensive care have increased, curbs have been placed in Paris, Marseille and Lyon. Bars will remain closed in these cities and restaurants will face stricter controls.

Spain has been recording more than 10,000 cases since the second week of September and in the last 24 hours, the country has seen more than 12,423 confirmed cases. This is more than the peak in April when it had less than 10,000 daily cases. The capital, Madrid, run by centre-right authorities, has been accounting for about half of the new

infections. Madrid’s regional government had been refusing to follow the country’s socialist-led cabinet restrictions for the virus outbreak. This led the Spanish government to invoke a state of emergency to keep Madrid in a partial lockdown.

There has been a sharp rise in cases in the United Kingdom between the third week of September when there were an average of 6,500 confirmed cases and October 5 when 22,961 cases were recorded. This is the highest since April. October 9 saw 17,540 cases and the cases are rising across England with a large number of people requiring hospitalisation.

Germany recorded more than 4,000 cases for the second day in a row, which led the German chancellor Angela Merkel to announce that regions would be given 10 days to improve the situation. Germany's disease control official warned that the country could see up to 10,000 new cases per day if social distancing rules were not followed.

"The virus is likely to spread out of control. We do not know how the situation in Germany will develop in the coming weeks. It is possible that we will see 10,000 new cases a day," said Lothar Wieler, the head of the Robert Koch Institute, in Berlin.

With Berlin emerging as one of the hotspots in the second wave, authorities in the city have moved to implement a curfew. Bars and restaurants will be forced to close between 11 pm and 6 am, and rules around gatherings at night-time have been tightened.

In Italy, the cases spiked from 4,458 on October 9 to 5,372 on Friday. The number of Corona virus cases had crossed 4k in the middle of April. Scientists in Italy have warned that the country was at risk of reaching 16,000 new infections a day. South of Italy had remained relatively

unscathed in the first phase of Italy’s pandemic, but Campania in south-western Italy is now recording the highest daily infection, followed by Lombardy and Veneto.

Masks have now been made mandatory in Italy though the case count is relatively lower than the other European countries. The Italian government has extended the state of emergency in the country until January 31, to make it easier for officials to enforce restrictive measures.

Covid-19 surge in India expected

The number of Covid-19 cases in India has remained in the 70k-80k range since October 3. This is lower than the number of confirmed cases during mid-September when more than 95,000 cases were being registered daily.

However, the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) has warned that Delhi is likely to report more than 15,000 Covid-19 cases daily in winter. This has been attributed to the high prevalence of respiratory illnesses during winter and expectations of patients from outside Delhi to reach the Capital for treatment.

NCDC said this in a report submitted to the Delhi government, revising its strategy for winter. The document was drafted by expert group led by Dr VK Paul of Niti Aayog. The Delhi Disaster Management Authority (DDMA) is hoping to revise its Covid-19 strategy based on this report. The report also suggested increasing testing capacity district-wise and optimisation of contact-tracing and testing strategies. The report also recommended another sero survey in the capital.