The 1st phase of polls on Saturday, all eyes would be on Surat

Bharatiya Janata Party’s twenty-two years rule is going to be challenged like never before as Gujarat goes to polls, starting Saturday. The BJP had won 63 of the 89 first phase seats in 2012 but it seems unlikely that it would get anywhere close to that number in 2017 polls.

The BJP, perhaps aware of the changing ground situation, has gone all out to play its old tricks but it is not generating the kind of impact it had in the past. Short of achievements to showcase at the end of 22 years and the communal card not working, the BJP has tried to make the election about Prime Minister Narendra Modi but that too does not seem be making much impact on the ground.

One day to go before the start of polling, it is now clear that both, the Aam Admi Party and Shankar Singh Vaghela have not been able to emerge as key forces. Though they might be able to make an impact on a few seats but the state largely remains a direct contest between the BJP and the Indian National Congress.

The first phase of the elections is critical for the BJP because 19 of the 33 districts in the state go to polls in phase one and these are largely in South Gujarat, Kutch-Saurashtra and parts of Central Gujarat. The BJP completely dominated these seats in 2012 as it had managed a lead in 15 of the 19 first phase seats and the lead in the Surat and Porbandar were as high as 25 percent while in Bhavnagar, the BJP had a massive lead of 18 per cent.

Of the 89 seats going to polls in Phase 1, the Congress tailed by a little more than 10 per cent of the votes. What is important to understand here is that the Keshubhai Patel’s GPP polled 5.7 per cent votes in phase one while the JDU polled 1.1 per cent. If we add the GPP and JDU to the Congress voteshare, it becomes a much closer battle and the gap narrows down to just 3.5%. Of the 89 seats, the BJP won 63 seats while the Congress could only win 22. JDU, NCP (one seat each) and GPP (two seats) won the remaining four seats.

The GPP factor becomes very important here because it had polled more than 10,000 votes in 23 Vidhan Sabha seats and on 10 seats, it polled more than 20,000 votes. The Gujarat of 2017 is very different from 2012 as Patels were still largely with the BJP as election studies from the last elections point that roughly 3/4th of the Patels (both Lehua and Kadva) voted for the BJP. Surveys and ground inputs indicate that the Patels are moving towards the Congress in very large numbers and we could have a situation where the Congress may end up with more Patel votes than the BJP and this alone could create serious openings for the Congress.

The JDU factor is also going to be an important factor in the coming elections as they had polled 1.1 per cent votes from phase 1 seats. Though the JDU won only one seat, it could help the Congress convert some close contests into wins, with the help of the JDU base. The tribal voters are a significant factor in the state and the BJP has been trying to consolidate its base among the tribal voters. Of the 27 seats reserved for scheduled tribes, Congress had won 16 while the BJP got 10 and one seat went to the JDU. The Congress would have a good chance of ending its 22-year political exile if it is able to retain its base among the tribal voters.

All eyes would be on the Surat district where the BJP won 15 of the 16 seats in 2012 and the BJP had a massive 25 per cent lead over the Congress and the lone Congress win came from the tribal dominated Mandvi seat as the urban areas voted overwhelmingly for the BJP. With close one lakh looms to estimated to have been sold as scrap post GST and the cloth production is estimated to have come down from 3.5 crore meters to 1.5 crore meters. The diamond trade too has suffered a setback, putting the BJP support base in acute financial distress.

With little improvement in the minimum support price for cotton and groundnut farmers, the BJP’s rural base has also taken a hit. The state government is trying to mitigate its political losses among the farmers by announcing a Rs 500 per quintal bonus on cotton, which may help them a bit it may not be enough for them to secure the complete support of the farming communities.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi won three elections for his party in the state but all three had some emotional issue playing in the background. It was Godhra and Gujarati asmita in 2002, development and Vibrant Gujarat in 2007 and possible projection as BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidacy in 2012. This time, however, the BJP does not have a strong emotional issue to galvanize the workers with. In 2017, the BJP is playing the Gujarati asmita card again as it seeks to call on all Gujarati voters to defend the PMs pride but other issues looked to have taken over, leaving the BJP gasping for breadth as they try to evoke some spunk in an otherwise flat electoral discourse.

The Congress has done well to tap into the resentment against the government over demonetisation, implementation of GST and the overall high-handedness in the government’s dealing of Patidar agitation. Patidars and traders are voting segments that have formed the base for the BJP for decades now and their shift has opened up possibilities for the Congress. While it is benefiting from the changing political alignments, the Congress would have to ensure that its traditional support base does not feel ignored.

The elections of 2012 started the rise of Narendra Modi which led to him winning one of the largest mandates in recent history but a lot has changed in the last five years. Despite all the optics, Modinomics has not delivered anything but pain and distress even in his home state. As Gujarat votes for the first phase tomorrow, the next two weeks could alter the course and discourse of national politics.