India to reach the corona peak in 30 days

Since the first outbreak on 30th January, coronavirus cases in India have crossed 20,000 mark in 83 days

As the lockdown completes a month, life and economy both have suffered badly

Life will not be usual after the lockdown ends on May 3 as the virus spread is still spiking

Everyone wants to know, when the pandemic will end or atleast starts to descend

The coronavirus epidemic could peak in India by the middle of May and gradually peter out after that

A report based on modelling exercise by international experts has predicted three different possibilities

It suggests that India could see the number of coronavirus cases crossing 75,000 around May 22

It provides insights on how the government and health infrastructure can respond to the crisis.

The report used three models: the percentage model, the time series model and the Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR) model.

Each model provides an estimate of how the outbreak could unfold under different conditions

The percentage model uses trends in Italy and the US, and applies them onto India to predict its trajectory.

The time series model takes into consideration data across time periods in China and adapts them to India’s data.

The SEIR model is based on an estimation of reproduction rate of the virus

This gives the average number of people each positive person infects.

The projections suggest that India may see 4 times more cases till it reaches the peak of outbreak

These projections also give an indication of when it might be safe to lift the lockdown.

The report also predicted two scenarios to show when the case tally could fall to zero.

In the first scenario, if the lockdown is extended to May 15, the case tally will fall to zero by September 15.

In the second scenario, if the lockdown is extended to May 30, cases will drop to zero by mid-June.

The report warns India of a long battle against corona virus ahead