COP29: Final 48 hours, finance COP faces rocky finale

Three years of painstaking negotiations to craft a new climate finance package for the developing world now hinge on the final 48 hours of the UN climate conference. 

The stage is set for a high-stakes showdown as rich and poor nations remain deeply divided, and the clock ticks toward an uncertain Friday deadline.

COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev is holding out hope for a “timely closure”, but the odds are slim as developed and developing nations remain locked in a standoff over the thorniest issues.  

At the heart of the talks is a new climate finance goal aimed at helping developing nations cut emissions and adapt to the worsening impacts of climate change. The developing world argues it needs at least USD 1.3 trillion annually — 13 times the USD 100 billion pledged in 2009 — to meet the growing challenges.  

Trust remains thin as rich nations met the USD 100 billion goal several years later in 2022, with around 70 per cent of the funds provided as loans — adding to the debt burdens of countries already reeling from climate disasters.  

Developing nations are pushing for funding to come directly from developed countries' public budgets, rejecting the heavy reliance on private-sector contributions, which they say prioritise profit over accountability.  

But the developed world, led by the US and EU, wants a broader “global investment goal” that taps into public, private, domestic, and international sources. They are also calling on wealthier nations like China and the Gulf states — classified as developing in 1992 — to contribute, citing their changed economic status.  

Developing countries see it as an attempt to dodge responsibility for historical emissions by shifting the burden to those who industrialized more recently.   

After a disappointing first week, the COP29 presidency assigned ministerial groups to tackle the sticking points. On Wednesday morning, Babayev urged negotiators to clear technical issues to focus on core disagreements. A new draft text is expected by midnight, but it is unclear if it will break the impasse.  

The G77, the largest negotiating block at the UN climate talks with over 130 developing nations, has demanded a headline figure in trillions. "We need this figure as a headline of the text... The rest can be discussed in the coming days," said Adonia Ayebare, the G77 chair.  

Meanwhile, Egyptian environment minister Yasmine Fouad, co-leading the talks, told a stock-take plenary that while all parties want to finalise the funding goal, some insist that trillions can only be achieved with contributions from all sources. However, she said all countries agree that the goal would not override Article 9, which mandates developed nations to provide financial support.  

Disagreements remain over how much public finance should be included.  India, on behalf of the Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDCs), has called for USD 600 billion in public funding, with private finance offered at concessional rates. The AOSIS group of small island nations wants USD 900 billion in government money, while the Arab group has proposed USD 440 billion.  

The frustration is palpable. Ali Mohammed, head of the African Group of Negotiators, said, “We are halfway through the second week, and there is still no clarity on the quantum of finance. This is deeply frustrating.”  

As tensions rise, some fear a repeat of the 2009 Copenhagen summit, where backroom deals left many nations feeling excluded. 

The stakes are high. Without a clear finance goal, the conference risks undermining progress on other critical issues like mitigation and adaptation.