Difficult to expect market performance similar to 2023, say bankers

The year 2023 has been a great one for markets — for both the frontline indices and the broader markets. It once again showed the impact of retail/HNI buying and when the FPIs also turned buyers, there was no going back, says Dhiraj Relli, MD & CEO at HDFC Securities.

“In 2024, we are beginning on a high base and hence it may be difficult to expect a similar performance by the time 2024 ends,” he said.

He, however, said the resurgence of FPI buying and placement of India as an attractive market, despite the seeming high valuations, may help our markets register some more gains in the early part of the year.

But he added that we may later have bouts of volatility due to elections, timing and quantum of rate cuts, and valuation concerns.

He said that the retail Indian has truly woken up and will drive the markets whenever the macros are favourable.

As 2023 draws to a close, the most significant feature of the year’s rally is the sharp outperformance of the broader market, says V.K. Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

He said the midcap index is up by almost 45 per cent and the small cap index is up by 55 per cent leaving the Nifty far behind with appreciation of around 20 per cent.

He said that this trend is likely to be reversed in 2024 since the mid and small caps are overvalued and large caps are relatively fairly valued.

He said that the autos, construction and financials are set to do well in 2024. Autos are in a cyclical rebound, financials are fairly valued even after the recent run up and the prospects for construction related segments continue to look good. Capital goods will continue to do well in 2024 too.

He said that January is normally a poor month for the market while Q3 results and management commentary will be keenly watched by the market.