With caste census, Nitish looks beyond Lok Sabha 2024 to Bihar 2025

The Nitish Kumar government in Bihar might have played a major card by publishing the Bihar caste survey on Gandhi Jayanti, months ahead of the assembly polls to be held in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, and not to forget the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and 2025 Bihar Assembly polls.

Amid opposition from the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to the caste-based survey, Kumar's decision to publish the survey may have been the checkmate move of the Opposition INDIA bloc against the NDA before the 2024 polls.

Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, both the NDA and INDIA bloc have begun asking for people's votes adhering to their respective political strategies. On the one hand, the BJP has passed the contentious Women's Reservation Bill (with qualifiers attached) by convening a special Parliament session, while Kumar seems to have played a masterstroke in the country's politics by conducting a caste survey in the state.

Through the years, Kumar has cemented his reputation as a clever politician who has successfully been able to stitch various caste equations in his favour. Despite winning fewer seats in the 2020 assembly elections, he has been in power as chief minister for the last 18 years.

The introduction of the caste survey in Bihar is also being linked to a political strategy planned by the Janata Dal (United) chief. According to political observers, Kumar has pulled off a political masterstroke for not just the 2024 Lok Sabha elections but the 2025 Bihar assembly elections as well.

Additionally, he made sure to first unite the anti-BJP front parties in Bihar and follow that up by releasing the caste survey report. 

There is no doubt that caste plays a significant role in assembly elections in Bihar. However, the BJP in Bihar is now looking to base its political strategy on women's reservation and religion.

Political analysts say with the caste survey, Kumar has tried to keep not only the BJP, but also his INDIA bloc allies at bay without overstepping their political boundaries.

One other important aspect, according to many observers, is that with the JD(U)'s on again-off again rival Rashtriya Janata Dal's core vote bank comprising largely Yadav-Muslim voters, the Bihar CM has tried to woo Muslims and Extremely Backward Class (EBC) voters with the survey. 

According to the survey results, EBCs comprise 36 per cent of the population in Bihar, while the population of Yadavs in the state is 14 per cent.

No wonder Bihar political expert Manikant Thakur says the caste survey is a purely political move. "Nitish Kumar has tried to improve his dwindling political image again and to position himself as a strong leader at the national level," Thakur said.

He added that the political move by Kumar is to stop the consolidation of Hindu votes by the BJP, adding that he has been dividing various Hindu castes and sub-castes earlier as well for political gains.

Which is where Thakur adds a note of caution, saying that since the survey report was released, aggrieved voices are being raised about which share of the population receives what benefits of caste-based reservation. If more population groups raise demands for reservation benefits as per the caste survey, the ruling grand alliance in Bihar may face difficulties on the political front, he feels.

Thakur also adds that the BJP could find a solution to the caste equation politics of Nitish Kumar by sticking to its usual poll planks of 'sabka saath, sabka vikas aur sabka vishwas', and nationalism.

Bottom line, Kumar has undeniably made a bold political move before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections by releasing the caste survey report in Bihar. Whether it proves beneficial or detrimental to his political career, only time will tell.