Why Narendra Modi and KCR need each other

It is now becoming clearer that Telangana chief minister and Telangana Rashtra Samiti supremo K Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR) is planning to migrate to Delhi to become part of national politics.

Although speculation has been rife that K Taraka Rama Rao (KTR) – the son of KCR- would take over as chief minister post 2019 elections, now KCR’s ministers have also started airing such views in public.

In a statement last week, Telangana home minister Nayani Narasimha Reddy demanded that KTR be made the chief minister and said that the state would develop faster under him. Since KCR runs an extremely tight ship, the home minister’s statement could only have been made with the concurrence of the chief minister himself. Other ministers too have in recent days made statements to the effect that telling something to KTR is tantamount to saying so to the chief minister.

Although KCR –who is only 64 and in reasonably good health -wants to migrate to national politics, analysts are unclear which side he would join. Latest indications are that he may join the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). His party MPs did not participate in the vote on the no confidence motion and the 20 minutes speech of party MP B Vinod Kumar was only very mildly critical of the Modi government.

In fact, much of his intervention concentrated on seeking additional assistance from the union government for various projects and showcasing the achievements of KCR. Narendra Modi also acknowledged KCR and hinted that they were on the same side by praising how the state had concentrated on development after the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh in 2014. This has led to jubilation among the ranks of the TRS.

For BJP with its eyes on the 2019 election, a tacit alliance with TRS makes sense. This is because the fledgling BJP in Telangana has been unable to make any headway in the last five years. Party president Amit Shah has visited the state a couple of times but has been unable to galvanise the state unit. So, instead of fighting the TRS, the BJP would rather join hands (if only informally) with it to combat the Congress.

Although after the no confidence motion, TRS is veering towards the BJP, a few months ago things were slightly different. Four months ago, in mid- March, KCR travelled to Kolkata to broach the subject of forming a federal front with West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee. Nothing much came of the federal front as conceived by KCR. With the realisation that most other opposition parties were mulling over a joint opposition with the Congress, KCR stepped back.

The Congress is TRS’s primary opposition in Telangana and the two cannot come together. After convincing then Congress president Sonia Gandhi to grant Telangana and also proposing that he was mulling to merge his party with the Congress, KCR began to sing a different tune after the event.

In some senses, KCR is on the horns of a dilemma. Analysts say that with Telangana now as his pocket borough, KCR wants to move to national politics with the ambition of becoming Prime Minister. But that is something that is virtually impossible if TRS ties up with BJP and becomes part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). With Modi in such a paramount position, the chances of his not being the Prime Minister, if NDA gets a shot at the top position in the 2019 election, is remote. In case if it is not Modi it would be somebody else from the BJP.

On the other hand, if the opposition cobble up a majority, chances are that Rahul Gandhi will get the top berth. In the event of the Congress not doing very well but other opposition parties doing well, someone like Chandrababu Naidu of TDP could make the grade. Telangana has merely 17 seats in Lok Sabha, so even if KCR’s TRS bags a majority of the seats in the state in the 2019 elections, the chances of his emerging as a consensus candidate will be remote.

But with somebody like H D Deve Gowda making the grade in the past, the extremely shrewd and canny Chandrasekhar Rao would not rule out his chances. By the way, in early July Deve Gowda and KCR had a meeting in Hyderabad. Though billed as a courtesy visit, political analysts are convinced that some plan was being hatched.