UP Assembly Election 2022: Why PM Modi is campaigning so desperately for the last two phases?

BJP has decided to throw Prime Minister Narendra Modi into the campaign for the last phase of UP election. PM Modi, who has remained mostly absent from the first five phases, now seems desperate to pull the strings for the party in Purvanchal. Does this show his desperation to hold the state he represents in Lok Sabha or is there some hidden message for the state leadership?

At last Modi has been thrown into the ring. For a large part of the election campaign, during the first five phases out of total seven, he remained absent. He even cancelled his opening rally proposed in Bijnor during the first phase. He didn’t turn up for campaigning where the party was in trouble, including the districts of Muzaffarnagar, Ghaziabad, Noida, Hapur, Meerut, Bulandshahar, Amroha, Sambhal, Rampur and Lakhimpur Kheri. Till the end of phase five, HM Amit Shah and CM Yogi Adityanath tried to resist the opposition tide in the state. Now, when the election is in the last two phases and 292 out of total 403 seats have voted, the PM’s show of strength raises many questions.

Is this a last effort to get some seats for his party, a desperation to save the party’s government in the state he represents as the member of Parliament or to establish that he is the only savior? If opposition leaders are to be believed, it is an effort to get some respectable seats in an election that is already lost. Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav is claiming that his party has already bagged 200 seats out of 292 seats where voting took place during the first five phases. This claim may be an exaggeration considering the neck-to-neck fight on over 12 dozen seats. But yes, BJP may want to balance the losses of western UP in its stronghold, i.e. the Purvanchal.

Some political commentators are suggesting that the PM has nothing to do with the assembly polls, rather he is oiling the party poll machinery for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Meanwhile, there are also people suggesting that the PM wants to discredit CM Yogi Adityanath. Where the party was weak, he remained absent, while he is back to campaign in Varanasi and nearby regions where BJP looks strong. All of the given points may be correct, but actually it is all about the brand Modi. Obviously, it is an effort to mobilize the party supporters and workers in its bastion but this seems more to establish that no one is better than Narendra Modi in the saffron brigade.

Though the ruling BJP is posing as if they were comfortable during the first five phases but the truth seems to be something else. The party is locked in close contest and there may be around 70 seats where the victory or loss margins will be below five thousand votes. The party may still win the elections but the situation isn’t as comfortable as it was being perceived some two months ago. Unless ‘Motabhai’ comes into action and the machinery becomes too supportive, it may not be an easy task for the BJP to retain power on March 10 this year. With many seats going to the last round without decisive leads, the elections have turned a hard fought battle.

For a party riding on waves, this isn’t a normal situation. There are still 111 seats to grab. If the BJP is able to do a clean sweep in the last two phases, it will remain in the contention for power with many dubious characters among the opposition ranks. ‘Motabhai’ may try Karanataka 2.0, Madhya Pradesh 2.1 or the Goa 2.3 versions of his tested election software in such conditions. Obviously, it is too early to talk on such circumstances. But the issue is, why Modi remained aloof of the election campaign till phase five and what is pushing him beyond his limits in the last two phases?

Let’s have a look on the region where the PM is campaigning. He is in and around Varanasi, Maharajganj, Chandauli, Ballia, Gorakhpur, and Kushinagar. These are the districts where the BJP garnered most of the seats in 2017 elections. Also, it is the region influenced by the Hindu Yuva Vahini of Yogi Adityanath. It looks more an effort to discredit Yogi and establish that Modi is still the biggest face in the ruling party. Yogi Adityanath has already been cut to size by not being allowed to contest from Ayodhya. He was left alone to face the hostile crowds in western UP. When people started believing that the BJP is in trouble, Modi has come out as a savior.

The issue with brand Modi is that he never takes the responsibility for the failures of his party. His party believes that he will miraculously push the BJP close to or above the majority mark in the last two round of polling. Let us assume, BJP bags around 100 out of the 111 remaining seats. Surely, it will be credited to Modi. If BJP fails to get the required numbers, then for sure, the big faces of BJP in the region i.e. Yogi Adityanth, Rajnath Singh, Surya Pratap Shahi, Jai Prakash Nishad, Mahendranath Pandey, Jagdambika Pal, RPN Singh, and Ramapati Ram Tripathi are there to bear the burden of defeat. The media and party functionaries will leave no stone unturned to claim that whatever the party has got, is due to Modi only.

So, we can say that the last two phases are being used to re-polish the image of PM Modi. His party is hoping for better results in round six. Despite inflation, poor management of the pandemic, unemployment, and now mismanagement in bringing the students back from Ukraine, BJP has been trying to put on a brave face and show that it is still leading the race for the March 10 counting. This is important to minimize the losses for the party and more importantly, to prove that Modi is the leader, not Yogi who is being propped by the media as Modi’s replacement.

Views are personal