They are a microscopic minority in UP but Sikh voters still matter in close contests

Sikhs do not seem to matter in the electoral politics of Uttar Pradesh. Their numbers are seen as negligible. They are not known to take much interest in the state’s identity politics and they are concentrated in too few places to significantly affect electoral outcomes.

Barring Pilibhit and Lakhimpur Kheri, they are not seen as of any consequence. Agriculturists and traders, they have largely kept to themselves and remained focused on their business.

Will things be different this time? The number of Sikh voters in Saharanpur, Meerut, Bijnor, Ghaziabad, Hapur, Amroha, Moradabad, Rampur, Bareilly, Shahjahanpur, and Lucknow is not insignificant, acknowledge observers. The number of Gurudwaras in the region provide some indication of their number and influence. They enjoy goodwill and have social capital.

The 2011 census put the number of Sikhs at around seven lakh in the state, a tiny drop. The number of voters would be even fewer. But In Lakhimpur Kheri, concentration of 93,000 Sikhs give them more clout. In five of the eight constituencies in the district, they can influence elections, provided they vote for the same candidate.

In the wake of the farmers’ agitation and the killing in Lakhimpur Kheri, where Union Minister of State for Home’s son drove over a group of Sikh farmers, they are expected to do just that. The community, points out a political analyst, may be small in the state and has enough financial and social clout to punch above its weight. They can this time influence the outcome with not just votes but also in other ways, he points out. There are more than twenty seats in the states, where Sikhs could be playing a crucial role, he believes.

Western Uttar Pradesh also has a large number of voters with Punjabi roots. Many of them migrated from Pakistan after Partition or during militancy in Punjab during the 1980s. “In cities like Saharanpur, Meerut, Moradabad, Bareilly, and Pilibhit, Punjabi surnames like Arora, Chhabra, Dudeja, Chhibbar, Grewal, Chawla, Tandon etc are fairly common. In addition there are neoconverts from Dalit and Jat communities, who however continue to identify themselves as Hindus, points out Darshan Singh of Amroha.

Traditionally, these voters have supported the BJP. But the party is now unsure about its support among Punjabi voters in the region after the farmers’ agitation. Describing farmers as Khalistanis and Pakistanis, it apprehends, hurt the community and the Lakhimpur Kheri incident further alienated them. The Government has not helped matters by not withdrawing cases against farmers and giving the impression that the contentious farm laws would return.

The reaction of BJP leaders in Pilibhit identified with the Punjabi community in the region, Maneka Gandhi and Varun Gandhi and their criticism of the BJP Government is reflective of the anger and alienation, people say.

There is a belated realisation in BJP that the small community can still matter in close contests. Since 1989, most of the seats in the upper Ganga Doab, Rohilkhand and upper Terai region have witnessed close contests and in 2017 there were around 80 seats where victory margins were less than 5% of the votes polled. In Mirapur and Sikandrabad in 2012 the margins were less than 500 votes.

(This article was first published in National Herald on Sunday)