Pundits foxed in UP: Crowds surge at all rallies

Thousands of people waited over three hours in Hardoi for Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to arrive. Delirious crowds greeting Akhilesh Yadav even at midnight. Huge crowds attending the late rallies now being addressed by BSP chief Mayawati. And notwithstanding jibes on social media that chief minister Yogi Adityanath is addressing sparse crowds, independent observers say that even the beleaguered Yogi is drawing large crowds in his election meetings.

The size of the crowd at road shows and rallies have foxed political observers. In the past the size would indicate the popularity and organizational muscle of the party and the candidate. But with everyone drawing large crowds, it is difficult to make out what voters have in mind, confess old-timers.

But size of the crowd and the level of enthusiasm are still good indicators, the pundits believe. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s roadshow in Mathura was “the best ever“ in the temple city, some of them claimed, hinting that the BJP candidate Shrikant Sharma, the power minister in the Yogi Government, appeared to be on a sticky wicket.

Others scoff at the crowd theory. It merely indicates that people are largely unemployed and have time to kill, quips a government employee flippantly. A betel shop owner felt that ‘rent a crowd’ was in play. People with little disposable income, he said, would be willing to join a procession, shout slogans, attend rallies if they are assured of food and some money. A retired school teacher felt it showed a maturing democracy where people are willing to give a hearing to all parties before making up their mind.

Manish Srivastava, retired government employee, admits that political parties paid money to people for attending rallies. He recalls that in the 1980s he was unemployed and travelled to Lucknow from Bahraich to attend a Janata Dal rally. He was paid Rs 10, equivalent to Rs. 100 or so today, besides free lunch and dinner packets.

“Those days rallies were held at Begum Hazrat Mahal Park in the heart of Lucknow. Near the coffee house I found a book stall selling application forms for the post of a clerk in the Health department. I bought a form, applied for the post, and luckily got the job. Attending that rally changed my life,” he narrated. Two young men listening to him were wide-eyed and clearly sceptical. Getting a government job couldn’t ever be that simple, their eyes seemed to suggest.

Media reports confirm that arranging crowds for political rallies is still done on an industrial scale. As many as 300 private buses from Haryana, a report stated, had brought people to attend a rally in Saharanpur addressed by the Prime Minister. But when the bus owners did not receive the promised payment for the fuel and the toll tax, they spilled the beans.

But while some parts of the crowd are undoubtedly ‘managed’, people concede that spontaneous crowds seem more visible in the state this year. Perhaps people are actually upset with the government, angry even? They could be looking for options.

Crowds, others say, do not necessarily translate into votes. Pranshu Mishra, a journalist quips lightly, “If we add up the number of people attending political rallies it might cross the total population of Uttar Pradesh,” insinuating that people from outside the state are brought in to swell the numbers.

Prabha Shankar Asthana, also a journalist, speculates that the same set of people could be attending different rallies.

(This was first published in National Herald on Sunday)