NC’s biggest victory is also its gravest challenge

In the 2024 verdict, the National Conference has registered its best performance since 1996, winning 42 out of 90 seats and is set to lead a coalition government with Congress and CPI(M). But uneasy lies the head that wears the crown as the party also faces its most formidable challenges.

For one, the new government which takes over the reins of power in a changed landscape of Jammu and Kashmir with a truncated boundary and demoted status, will be involved in a constant tussle with New Delhi’s appointed Lieutenant Governor.

Secondly, the government will be weighed down by the peculiarity of the mandate, which is a decisive one in the Valley, giving the alliance a clear overall majority but is fractured along regional — to be more precise, religious — lines, within the Union Territory.

Decoding the mandate

The NC–Congress alliance led in 49 of 90 seats, with NC securing 42, Congress 6 (five in Valley and one in Rajouri), and the CPI(M) 1. BJP dominated 29 seats, all in the Jammu region and mainly in Hindu-majority districts, barring three in the Chenab Valley. Of the 47 seats in the Valley, the alliance won 41, ceding six to PDP, independents, and Peoples Conference. BJP had a clean sweep in the Hindu majority areas but failed to gather much moss in the Muslim majority belts of Jammu province.

The verdict needs to be decoded in its totality. There are many layers to unpack but for now, just an overview would suffice.

Breaking away from the tradition of boycotts and low to moderate polling, not only did the Valley witness brisk polling, but the voters also threw their weight behind one party, despite the many machinations, manipulations, proxies, and sentimental emotional baits. This conveys that the voters in Kashmir voted pragmatically to give a resounding response to the BJP, express their anger against the abrogation of Article 370 and demotion of the state to a union territory, and for change against the present status quo.

The same is true of much of the Chenab Valley, where the BJP won three out of 8 seats but two with wafer-thin victory margins, and the Pir Panjal region, where the BJP’s weaponisation of ST status for Paharis completely collapsed.

The core aspirations of this mandate cannot be discarded or set aside. Yet, it’s not as simple as it seems.

If the mandate in Kashmir, Pir Panjal and Chenab Valley was a referendum for the restoration of special status, was the overwhelming majority of BJP in Jammu’s Hindi heartland an opposition to that?

That is how the BJP and its supporters would like to set the narrative which is but a mirage.

The troubling Jammu knot

BJP’s impressive performance in Jammu is a culmination of three major factors — the gerrymandering of boundaries that carved out more Hindu-majority seats, the abysmally poor performance of the coalition, particularly of the Congress, whose stronghold Jammu had been before 2014, despite a strong anti-incumbency factor, and the BJP’s shrewd ability to capture the imagination of the voter by diverting the anti-BJP anger into a fear of the Kashmiri domination or re-emergence of separatist sentiment.

Whether it was the use of the Rashid factor, seen as polarising in Jammu, or manipulation of the fear of rising terrorism incidents, which increased in the Jammu region under BJP’s watch, in an electoral battlefield left almost vacant by the Congress, the BJP was able to sell its narrative very effectively in Jammu.

Here lies a paradox: Despite the deepening resentment against BJP’s policies including the dilution of constitutional protections, though not necessarily revocation of Article 370, and the loss of statehood, voters in Jammu opted for the very party that brought this misery on them.

Jammu provides a knotty necklace that is difficult for anyone to untangle. The voters in Jammu chose their loyalty to BJP over their aspirations. Whether the deeply embedded aspirations in Jammu are similar to those in Kashmir or not, the fact is that the BJP, which represents a sentiment antithetical to that has a strong hold over Jammu and that cannot be ignored.

The task for the NC-led coalition government is how to reach out to Jammu and balance Jammu’s dilemma with the restless enthusiasm of Kashmir with BJP waiting in the wings to give a communal twist to every narrative.

While this is difficult, it is not entirely impossible. Minimalist aspirations in both regions — of freedom from the arrogance of bureaucracy, accountable governance, jobs, development, protection of resources, and end to drug abuse — are the same. These provide an ideal ground for building bridges and moving forward. The National Conference can leverage its tradition of pan-J&K acceptability and Farooq Abdullah, owing to his popularity in Jammu, may be better placed to do it.

This, however, cannot be done without Congress, which has been electorally decimated but its vote share has improved. For the sake of the region’s peace and stability, and the party’s legitimacy, it may need to do so some pragmatic thinking, and rejuvenate its cadres for larger and continuous mass contact programmes.

However, there is a caveat.

Even if the NC–Congress coalition acts in all its wisdom and navigates this challenge ably, it is caught in a real-time game zone, where the challenges and the menacing dragons never end.

Constantly, the new government will be put in a situation where it faces pressures from within the region and outside.

The UT framework

The NC-led coalition government will have to reckon with the new reality of operating within the new framework and rules. Unlike states that have autonomous powers and a federal relation with the union government, Union Territories, with or without an elected assembly, are directly controlled by New Delhi through an appointed administrator or a Lieutenant Governor.

Ahead of the announcement of assembly elections in Kashmir, the Indian government amended the rules expanding the role of the Lieutenant Governor, giving him more powers for oversight on the functioning of the local government including in matters related to transfers, security, and prisons.

According to these rules, any decisions taken by the legislative assembly, or the local executive would need to be vetted by the Lieutenant Governor, making the Union government the final arbiter even in the administrative affairs of the region, including control over bureaucracy, anti-corruption bureau, police, and public order besides influencing decisions on prosecutions and sanctions.

These changes have resulted in a power structure similar to that of Delhi, which enjoys a limited statehood status, and other Union Territories with legislatures with trimmed powers. Delhi’s recent controversy over the sacking of bus marshals and the ‘dramatic’ image of Aam Aadmi Party’s minister Saurabh Bharadwaj holding the feet of a BJP legislator in desperation is a sign of the times to come.

BJP has already enjoyed the reputation of a systemic assault on the federal principles of the constitution by trampling over the rights of states ruled by the opposition and jailing chief ministers of opposition-ruled states. Jammu and Kashmir has had a long history of systemic political manipulations from New Delhi by successive regimes.

Given these facts, in all probability, the Omar Abdullah-led government will be engaged in constant firefighting with the nagging terrier on its heels.

The BJP’s wounded pride

The problems could be far more complex. Even as the BJP is bragging about its splendid show in Jammu, the mandate suggests both an electoral and moral defeat for the party. Despite the change of rules, the redistricting of boundaries to its advantage, the alleged plotting of conspiracies, and the use of its immense resources, it is way below the halfway mark and in no position to form a government. The verdict has ripped bare its false narrative of peace, development and progress in Jammu and Kashmir. This cover now lies in tatters.

The BJP’s pride is wounded and a wounded tiger is dangerous for itself and the others. Powered by a destructive ideology that is inherent in its DNA, there is no telling to what extent the BJP could go to salvage its lost self-esteem.

There can be no room for complacency.

Will voters’ hopes be dashed?

The victory for the National Conference is huge but it is momentary. The challenges ahead are far too gargantuan to overcome.

While the government formation revives some hopes, a vital question is whether this would restore democracy in the region long starved of it or end up being a mere political theatre. Would the limited powers of a prospective assembly, and the inter-regional and inter-religious frictions turn this democratic exercise into a charade that could prevent the government from delivering?

In that case, it could push the people of this restive region with a troubled history into irreparable despair. Driven by the desperation of disenfranchisement, lack of constitutional guarantees and emerging security threats, the Ladakhis are already sitting in protest in Delhi after a long foot march marching to India’s capital. Despondency in the entire region spiralling out of control will be immensely dangerous.

The new government must tread with extreme caution, wisdom, sensitivity, and agility.

This article is reproduced with permission, and was first published in Kashmir Times