Maharashtra: The rise and fall of Devendra Fadnavis

Deputy chief minister and home minister Devendra Fadnavis has egg on his face. A reply from the office of Nagpur’s police commissioner to Mumbai-based RTI activist Ajay Bose reveals a staggering number of registered crimes against women from January to August 2024.

As many as 213 cases of rape were recorded in Nagpur, apart from 320 complaints of women being harassed. The actual numbers are likely to be higher with many more cases going unregistered and unreported. Nagpur is BJP leader Fadnavis’ home town and constituency as well as the headquarters of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

As if that weren’t bad enough, Akshay Shinde, the main accused in the Badlapur case where two four-year-old girls were sexually assaulted, was shot dead by the police ‘in self-defence’ while being escorted back from the court on 23 September.

Most people’s immediate reaction was that Shinde was silenced to protect local BJP bigwigs associated with the school. The fact that Shinde’s previous job was on the farm of one of the two promoters is a detail that has not been lost on people. Tushar Apte and Uday Kotwal, both BJP functionaries, have been absconding since the incident.

While Asim Sarode, the lawyer for the two minor girls, said Shinde’s death in such a manner was “the killing of justice”, chief minister Eknath Shinde and deputy CM Fadnavis’s response to the encounter was, essentially, “good riddance”. Everyone anyway wanted him hanged, so what’s the furore about, they seemed to suggest.

Fadnavis is bearing the brunt of the public fallout and his stars, even within the BJP, seem to be dimming. Tipped at various times as a possible successor to Modi and more recently as the next BJP national president after J.P. Nadda, there are growing indications that the party is losing confidence in his ability to manage the tough assembly election ahead.

A four-member team from the ECI (Election Commission of India) visited Maharashtra this week to take stock of the preparations. Both the ruling coalition and the Opposition are running against time, and Fadnavis seems to be desperately in need of some good news.

With weeks to go before the election is notified, former Union minister and Maratha leader Raosaheb Danve has been appointed the BJP’s election coordinator. Insiders confirm that the overall management of the party’s election efforts would be supervised by the RSS, with Union ministers and national leaders entrusted with managing different regions.

Senior RSS leader Atul Limaye has been chosen to coordinate between the Sangh and the party. The flurry of such steps indicates that the party has decided to clip Fadnavis’s wings. He had offered to resign in June as a gesture of accountability for the party’s poor performance, but was persuaded to stay, with the assurance that the assembly election would be contested under his supervision, and that his responsibilities would not just include coordination between the other two parties in the ruling coalition, but also extend to the selection of party candidates.

Deemed to be close to both Prime Minister Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah, Fadnavis did play a key role in installing the BJP government in the state post-2019. While the first dramatic attempt was shortlived with Ajit Pawar backing out, the second attempt to dislodge the MVA government headed by Uddhav Thackeray succeeded with the splitting of the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) headed by Sharad Pawar.

While Eknath Shinde, the defecting leader from the Shiv Sena, had to be accepted as chief minister because there would have been no government without him, Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar were both foisted as deputy chief ministers, partly to rein Shinde in.

By all appearances, that plot has failed spectacularly, with Shinde increasingly being more assertive. The chief minister’s camp also has more supporters who now openly claim that today Shinde is a more popular leader than Fadnavis, a Brahmin.

While the former chief minister’s fanboys continue to flaunt Fadnavis as the BJP’s most popular leader in the state, opponents accuse him of weakening the party and sidelining leaders perceived as a threat to him. The long list of sidelined leaders includes Vinod Tawde, Eknath Khadse and Pankaja Munde.

Poonam Mahajan, they point out, is also inactive after being denied a ticket for the Lok Sabha. Khadse joined the NCP and though he returned to the BJP this year, he is sulking because his role in the party and in the impending election is yet to be defined. The splitting of the Shiv Sena and the NCP that was hailed as a masterstroke has actually debilitated the BJP.

Fadnavis’s followers argue that, at 54, he has time on his side, and is a more acceptable face than the others, with support from all sections of society. His hold on Marathas, however, is doubtful with Manoj Jarange, who has been spearheading the agitation for Maratha reservation, accusing Fadnavis of creating impediments.

While Fadnavis himself is not too keen to move to the Centre anytime soon (he believes the shift would make it difficult for him to return), his chief ministerial ambitions are no secret. The Shinde camp, however, claims that Fadnavis had assured Shinde he would continue as chief minister with the BJP’s support, no matter how many seats the Shinde faction wins in the assembly election.

The RSS, too, is believed to be divided on Fadnavis’ future function and utility — some are in favour of Fadnavis as BJP national president, the rest are exploring other options. Meanwhile, Fadnavis is campaigning with gusto, calling himself a newer, braver, more modern Abhimanyu — one who will not die fighting, but will emerge unscathed.

An acid test for Ajit Pawar

Ajit Pawar, the nephew who betrayed his uncle, finds himself isolated in the ruling coalition. The buzz in the state is that it’s just a matter of time before he is forced to contest the assembly election independently.

He has tried to make amends, admitting that he should not have gone against the ‘family’. He has spoken out against communalism and Hindutva. He has spoken in favour of secularism and criticised the vituperative speeches of BJP legislator Nitesh Rane.

Despite being one of the two deputy chief ministers, he is isolated in the cabinet. Seen as a liability by Shinde, the BJP and the RSS, he’s likely to be left out in the cold. None are willing to concede their seats to his group, saying they are prepared to contest without the NCP (Ajit Pawar) in the coalition.

The defiant nephew appears reluctant to relent. He has been dropping hints about fielding at least 10 Muslim candidates on the NCP (Ajit Pawar) ticket. An acid test awaits him in the next two months.