Kerala: All eyes on Palakkad as Congress strives to retain seat

If Rahul Mamkootathil, the Congress candidate making his debut from the Palakkad assembly seat in Kerala, is deemed the favourite to win, it has a lot to do with anti-incumbency against the LDF (Left Democratic Front) government, and Vadakara Congress MP Shafi Parambil. Having won Palakkad thrice and narrowly defeated 'Metro Man' E. Sreedharan in 2021, Parambil is campaigning for young state Youth Congress president Mamkootathil as if he himself were in the fray.

Parambil defeated the LDF’s K.K. Shailaja, the state's formidable former health minister, in the Lok Sabha election earlier this year, and is exerting himself to ensure another Congress victory from Palakkad, in part as preparation for the next assembly election due in 2026.

The contest, however, promises to be close. Since 2016, the BJP has been the runner-up in Palakkad, with Sobha Surendran garnering 29.08 per cent of the votes in 2016 and Sreedharan polling 35.34 per cent in 2021. It was by 3,859 votes that Sreedharan lost to Parambil last time.

The BJP also controls the municipality in Palakkad. The only other municipality controlled by the BJP in Kerala is Pandalam, the epicentre of the Sabarimala stir in 2018. The BJP candidate, its state general-secretary C. Krishnakumar, however, faces opposition from lobbies within the party after having lost the Lok Sabha election.

Another factor which is making the triangular contest in Palakkad riveting is the active participation of the RSS, with several observers claiming that this is the first time the organisation has openly campaigned in the state. “RSS volunteers have been going around meeting people and campaigning for at least four weeks now. And their booth-level work on polling day may be crucial,” a local observer felt.

Significantly, the RSS held a three-day national convention in Palakkad recently. 

The LDF has not put up a candidate of its own, supporting instead the independent candidate Dr P. Sarin, who left the Congress after being denied a seat by the UDF (United Democratic Front). Sarin, the former digital media chief of the Kerala Pradesh Congress, is also a former civil servant and a trained doctor. Expelled by the Congress for anti-party activities, he has received the backing of the LDF for the contest, with a stethoscope as his symbol.

Mamkootathil maintains that his contest is with the BJP and not the LDF. “It will not be easy but I will eventually win,” he said with a disarming smile in the midst of interacting with people.

The Chelakkara by-election is not expected to spring any surprise as the SC reserved constituency has traditionally been a CPI(M) stronghold. It fell vacant after the sitting MLA K. Radhakrishnan won the lone Lok Sabha seat in the state for the Left Front earlier this year. U.R. Pradeep, who won the seat in 2016, has been fielded by the LDF, and taking him on will be the Congress’ Ramya Haridas, who lost to Radhakrishnan in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

An upset in Kerala thus looks improbable in the by-elections. The results, however, will indicate the public mood and organisational strength of the parties besides the extent of people’s dissatisfaction with the LDF government.