Is there still any hope for ruling BJP in Uttar Pradesh elections?

With six rounds of voting over in Uttar Pradesh, the picture now looks clearer. Despite so many reservations, it is now evident that BJP is in troubled waters. Low voting, lack of enthusiasm among the BJP cadres and nonexistence of a positive narrative may result in a change of guard.

After a not so good show in round five and round six, BJP was confident of sweeping the remaining 111 seats of Purvanchal. Even during the last hour Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and CM Yogi Adityanath tried to put on a united show to nullify the rumours of drift among the leadership. But, it seems that the things aren’t working for the party that has become habitual of riding over the waves. Though it is too early to claim but the results in Purvanchal may surely upset both PM Modi and CM Yogi.

Desperation of BJP to keep hold on the seats in Gorakhpur, and Varanasi region are rooted in the fact that Prime Minister Modi represents Varanasi in Lok Sabha and Gorakhpur is the home bastion of CM Yogi Adityanath. After disturbing news from Mathura and Ayodhya, BJP mobilized all its resources and leaders towards the Purvanchal. Tentative data from the election commission suggests that “all the king horses and all the king men” failed to get people out of their homes and rush towards the polling booths. Among 10 districts that went to polls on February 03, highest polling was recorded in Ambedkar Nagar.

Total 676 candidates are in fray for 57 seats in the sixth phase. These include CM Yogi Adityanath (Gorakhpur Urban), Azad Samaj Party chief Chandrashekhar Azad (Gorakhpur Urban) UP Congress president Ajay Kumar Lallu from Tamkuhi Raj (Kushinagar) and Swami Prasad Maurya (Fazil Nagar, Kushinagar). In Gorakhpur district just 53.89 percent voters used their right to vote. Even the presence of the CM's name on EVMs couldn’t inspire the voters. Much to BJP’s displeasure, just 51.98 percent voters could cast their vote in Gorakhpur Urban till 5 pm.

Reading on the wall is very clear. People aren’t enthusiastic in the region nor are the BJP cadres who are known to push the voters out of their homes. Even the last hour spike in voting is absent. What hasn’t gone in BJP’s favour? There’s a long list but the major points to pick from the first six rounds are, BJP has failed to set a right narrative. This isn’t a single point in the entire campaign that may have touched the emotional chords. After five years of power in the state and 8 years in the centre, the party failed to recall anything that may have changed the lives of the electorate. All they could offer during the poll campaign is Hindu-Muslim, Cycle bomb, fear, and negativity. Surely, this isn’t enough to get people to the polling booths.

CM Yogi Adityanath may win his seat in Gorakhpur but many other seats may go the other way. In Maharajganj, Basti, Kushinagar and Deoria ruling party won’t be able to make a clean sweep this time. Mood of voters in Ambedkar Nagar, Balrampur, Siddhartha Nagar and Sant Kabir Nagar suggests that the opposition parties are going to fare better this time. BJP needed a clean sweep and for sure it isn’t going to happen. Main contender for power in the state, the Samajwadi Party now looks more confident, while BJP leaders have started talking about post poll coalitions. This means BJP cadres aren’t confident of retaining the power in UP for now.

Is there anything positive for BJP or a thing that can still work for them? Sure, the postal ballots and the Motabhai. A recent report suggests that almost 4.56 Lakh postal ballots are to be added to the final tally of this election. For 403 assembly seats this may average around 1132 votes per constituency. In the 2017 elections there were around two dozen seats where the victory margin was less than two thousand votes. The poll percentage has remained during this election. Let us assume that the contest is very tight and there are around 50-60 seats which may end up in a close fight. In that case the neutrality of poll machinery, objectivity of the poll body will come into consideration. Hope all goes well and the postal ballots remain irrelevant in the final margins.