In by-poll season, Bahraich reveals the BJP template

The by-elections for 10 assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh should have been held alongside the assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu-Kashmir. However, these by-elections were postponed because, following the BJP’s performance in the last general elections in UP, the party was uncertain about how to navigate an evolving political landscape. They recognised that the by-elections for these 10 seats were more critical to their prospects than the assembly elections in both Haryana and Jammu-Kashmir.

The challenges were multiple. The party’s central leadership struggled to counter the PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpasankhyak) formula put forth by the INDIA bloc. Meanwhile, in Uttar Pradesh, there were rumours that the by-elections could determine whether chief minister Yogi Adityanath would retain his position or step down.

The violent incident in Bahraich district, just two days before the Election Commission announced the by-elections, clearly signalled that both the BJP and Yogi Adityanath had formulated their response. This incident is being leveraged not only in Uttar Pradesh but also in Maharashtra for political gain.

Adityanath had already been working along these lines. A few days earlier, he had coined the slogan ‘Batoge toh katoge (if you divide, you’ll be destroyed)', which he used in every rally. This wasn’t merely a slogan, it was an integral part of his election strategy, aimed at consolidating the Hindu vote by instilling fear. Soon, other BJP leaders adopted it, even Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The events that occurred in Bahraich on 13 October and afterward cannot be categorised as a communal riot. A riot typically involves violent clashes between two communities, with both sides engaging in large-scale violence. What happened in Bahraich followed a deliberate pattern, similar to what we’ve witnessed in several tension-ridden areas over the past few years.

Violence is perpetrated by extremist organisations of the majority community on an ongoing basis, with the police guilty of inertia or woefully delayed responses. This coincides with deliberate narratives against the victims being pushed on social media and sometimes even in mainstream media.

This is exactly how the situation in Bahraich unfolded. Elements designed to provoke were seeded during an idol immersion procession in Maharajganj town. A banned DJ blared obscene songs.

The police were present, but did nothing. Former state DGP Vibhuti Narain Rai said that, for the police, strictness means “strictness against Muslims”. When the administration faces a Hindu mob, they are paralysed. Another former DGP said, “The police operate under pressure, making impartial action difficult... when the police do act, they face suspension, and when they don’t, incidents like Bahraich occur.”

During the procession, a young man, Ram Gopal Mishra, climbed onto the roof of a house displaying an Islamic flag. He not only removed the flag and hoisted a saffron flag in its place, he also tore down the railing it was attached to. This incident was captured on video, which went viral on social media.

The controversy centres on what happened next. A frightened young man from the family fired a shot at the person hoisting the saffron flag, killing him on the spot. It was only after this that the police became actively involved.

The firing was a criminal offence, no doubt, but the situation was misrepresented. The young man fired in a moment of fear, triggered by a person from a hostile mob who had actively encroached on and vandalised a private space (the family home). The incident has been framed as though the shot was fired by ‘the Muslim side’. In reality, it was a crime committed by an individual who responded to a particular provocation in a personal context.

After the postmortem, the crowds re-grouped. They went on a procession with Mishra’s body, setting fire to Muslim homes and shops along the way. No effort was made to stop them. Numerous videos on social media show large groups of people carrying sticks and weapons, with the police looking on.

Carried away by fury, the mob even attacked the BJP’s Mahsi MLA Sureshvar Singh’s jeep. In the FIR he later filed, Singh named seven attackers, including BJP city president Arpit Srivastava.

The police inaction was explained away by the fact that they were ‘concentrating on the murder case’. Several distant relatives of the family involved were arrested, two of whom were reportedly shot in the legs in a ‘half-encounter’ near the Nepal border. Locals however claim that this happened as they were being taken from their home.

In such situations, the state administration typically begins demolishing Muslim homes and shops. This time, notices were issued to 23 individuals, the majority of whom were Muslims, on the pretext of widening the road. Despite a Supreme Court order, the state found a way to continue ‘Bulldozer Baba’s’ policy. No effort was made to identify or hold those responsible for burning shops and houses, nor were any notices served.

The BJP’s social media machine went into hyperdrive, spreading rumours that Ram Gopal Mishra had not only been shot, his body had suffered further atrocities. These false claims, clearly aimed at inciting hatred against Muslims, were repeated on some TV channels. The postmortem report did not mention these ‘atrocities’ and even the local police denied the allegations.

Former BJP spokesperson Nupur Sharma emerged from the woodwork. Sharma, who had been expelled from the party years ago for making objectionable comments, had largely disappeared from the public eye. Capitalising on the volatile situation, she repeated the false rumours at a Brahmin conference in Bulandshahr, in her signature provocative style. Though she was eventually forced to apologise for her statements, they couldn’t be unsaid.

To sustain the tense atmosphere created in Bahraich until the by-elections is in the BJP’s interest. The Bahraich incident and its aftermath didn’t just spread like wildfire through social and mainstream media, it was deliberately fanned to polarise the electorate and consolidate votes.

Divisive slogans, orchestrated events and inflammatory speeches are part of the strategy to bring simmering communal tensions to a boil. However, if we examine the results of the last general elections, it is apparent that replicating past successes may not be so easy for the BJP.

The political landscape in Uttar Pradesh has changed significantly. Shifting regional dynamics, the INDIA bloc’s wooing of Dalits and minorities, the erosion of the BJP’s traditional vote banks in pockets, economic challenges and local grievances could further queer the saffron pitch.