Haryana: Contrary to BJP designs, Congress to gain from AAP’s entry

BJP supporters appeared more stoked by Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s release on bail than AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) supporters. The reason for their excitement became clearer as members of the BJP’s formidable army of trolls began speculating on social media about how Kejriwal’s release would harm the Congress’ prospects in Haryana, which goes to the polls on 5 October.

BJP supporters banking on Kejriwal’s appeal to bail their party out? What a priceless moment.

Talks of seat adjustment between the Congress and AAP had broken down even before Kejriwal was granted bail. Amidst reports that the Congress was ready to offer only four of the 90 Assembly seats to AAP, the latter announced it would be putting up candidates in all seats. Congress MP Deepender Hooda explained to a TV channel that talks broke down because AAP began releasing its list of candidates even while negotiations were on.

Some reports claimed that AAP was demanding specific seats, such as Kalayat, which the Congress was unwilling to concede; others pointed to an internal survey which concluded that an alliance with AAP would be disadvantageous, given its insignificant support base in Haryana.

A similar situation had cropped up during the last Lok Sabha elections. In Delhi, the Congress and AAP had eventually reached an agreement on seats, but neither party gained much. In Punjab, no agreement was reached, which ultimately worked in the Congress’s favour, as the Lok Sabha results indicated.

Election data show that AAP’s position in Haryana is not comparable to its standing in Punjab or Delhi. As a bipolar contest between the Congress and BJP builds up in the state, AAP’s influence might actually dwindle further.

This hasn’t stopped AAP from contesting as energetically in Haryana as in the other states. Perhaps because, as a national party, contesting multiple elections is crucial to maintain its status, even if it garners a small percentage of votes.

While Kejriwal’s campaigning may energise specific voter segments, the AAP’s weak presence in rural Haryana and its limited appeal to key voter groups suggests that it is unlikely to reshape the electoral landscape dramatically.

AAP’s political presence is primarily confined to urban areas — it is yet to make any significant inroads among Haryana’s rural electorate, especially among the farming communities and Dalits, who form a sizeable voting bloc.

Analysts point out that AAP’s support base in the state largely consists of the Punjabi and Bania communities, which also sustain and support the BJP.

With AAP potentially drawing votes from the urban middle class, the BJP could see a portion of its traditional voter base eroded. AAP’s influence may, therefore, hurt the BJP more than the Congress. In a highly competitive election where margins are often tight, any vote the AAP weans away from the BJP could translate into an indirect advantage for the Congress. And, with the Congress and the BJP as the primary contenders, AAP’s attempt to field candidates in all constituencies might have only a limited effect on overall vote distribution.

Voters, beware of vote-cutters

Pushed to fight the election with its back to the wall, BJP candidates are currently witnessing widespread public dissatisfaction. Former home minister Anil Vij, who recently positioned himself as a potential chief minister, encountered a hostile crowd of farmers during a campaign stop in Shahpur, a village in his constituency. The situation became so volatile that he had to leave without delivering his speech.

In Adampur, a stronghold of the Bhajan Lal family, Kuldeep Bishnoi faced angry farmers, while in Narayangarh, BJP candidate Pawan Saini also met with public outrage.

Narayangarh is chief minister Nayab Singh Saini’s home turf. Asked by popular YouTuber Ajit Anjum to compare Saini with his predecessor Manohar Lal Khattar, a Haryanvi replied that changing underwear didn’t stop diarrhoea. BJP allies are also feeling the heat of public anger — Dushyant Chautala, who served as deputy chief minister for nine-and-a-half years, is encountering strong opposition from voters across his constituency, Uchana.

Khattar, chief minister for nine-and-a-half years before Saini replaced him, was conspicuously missing at the prime minister’s first election rally in Kurukshetra. He was also missing from BJP posters and the PM did not mention him even once in his speech. He is clearly seen as a liability, even as the PM’s ‘flop show’ rally received a lukewarm response.

The BJP’s strategy is being referred to as the ‘third factor’. The party’s immediate goal is to engineer a three-way contest in every constituency. Some self-described social workers are running as independents, while in other areas, support has shifted to small state-level parties. This approach is reportedly being applied in at least 30–35 segments.

A prime example can be seen in the Sirsa Assembly segment. Controversial leader Gopal Kanda has long held this seat. His party, the Haryana Lokhit Party, has been a BJP ally and Kanda is still a minister in the state government. He was quick to file his nomination for Sirsa, but the BJP announced Rohtas Jangra as its candidate. Soon after Jangra filed his nomination, Kanda declared that, if elected, he would continue to support the BJP. Realising that having both Kanda and Jangra in the race could hurt their chances, the BJP had its official candidate withdraw from the contest.

The case of Savitri Jindal, one of India’s wealthiest women, adds another layer of intrigue. Just a few months ago, both Savitri and her son, Naveen Jindal, left the Congress to join the BJP. Interestingly, despite the BJP previously accusing Naveen Jindal of being involved in the Urtan coal allocation ‘scam’, the party gave him a Lok Sabha ticket for Kurukshetra, which he won.

However, Savitri Jindal was denied a ticket for the Assembly elections, leading her to run as an independent candidate. Naveen Jindal is among the BJP’s star campaigners in Haryana, while Savitri Jindal, the BJP hopes, will garner a sizeable section of the anti-BJP votes in urban and semi-urban areas.

Several Assembly segments in Haryana have seen a surge of candidates, all seemingly aimed at cutting into the Congress vote share. Political observer Satish Tyagi explains that the BJP is using this strategy to counter anti-incumbency. The party is operating on the assumption that anyone who can siphon off Congress votes is, in effect, their ally, bringing to mind the old adage, ‘the enemy of my enemy is my friend’.

Congress leader Bhupinder Singh Hooda is well aware of this tactic. In his public meetings, he frequently urges voters to be wary of ‘vote-cutters’. At a recent rally in Rohtak, he pointed out that in the last election, such candidates won 10 seats, clearly referring to Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janata Party (JJP). Hooda stresses that this time, no vote should go to waste.