What Trump brings to the Middle East

Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025, following his victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election, signals a significant turning point for the Middle East. With the Republican Party controlling both the Senate and the House, Trump’s second term is poised to reshape US foreign policy in ways that could amplify regional volatility. His transactional leader-ship style, alignment with right-wing Israeli policies, hawkish stance on Iran and focus on ‘the art of the deal’ suggest that the Middle East will once again be a testing ground for his geopolitical strategies.

During his first term, Trump positioned himself as one of Israel’s most unwavering allies, making landmark decisions that upended decades of US foreign policy norms. Recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and relocating the US embassy there were historic yet highly provocative moves. These actions delighted his evangelical base and solidified his support among Israeli leaders but outraged Palestinians and much of the Muslim world.

He also legitimised Israel’s claims over the occupied Golan Heights and dismantled support for Palestinian leadership, including closing the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) office in Washington and cutting aid to the Palestinian Authority.

Trump’s second term is likely to double down on this approach. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and former senior White House advisor, is expected to play a critical role in shaping Middle East policy. Even if not holding an official position, Kushner’s close ties with regional leaders such as Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and his role in brokering the Abraham Accords will likely influence Trump’s decisions.

The Abraham Accords, a hallmark of Trump’s first term, normalised relations between Israel and four Arab countries, including the UAE and Bahrain. While celebrated by supporters as a historic achievement, these agreements marginalised Palestinian aspirations and reinforced Israel’s regional dominance.

Trump’s return is viewed by Israel’s far-right government as an opportunity to accelerate annexation efforts in the West Bank. With no real backing for a two-state solution, pro-Israel sentiments in Washington will likely dominate policymaking, sidelining any serious discussion of Palestinian statehood or rights.

The ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon and the worsening humanitarian crisis in the Palestinian territories present immediate challenges. Trump’s track suggests he will intensify support for Israeli military actions while clamping down on pro-Palestinian activism in the US. He has already promised to set back the Palestinian solidarity movement by decades. This approach will deepen Palestinian despair, in turn fuelling further resistance, and attract global condemnation.

Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the imposition of a ‘maximum pressure’ campaign on Iran defined his first term policy towards Tehran. The assassination of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in 2020 nearly triggered a full-scale war, signalling a no-holds-barred stance. A second Trump administration is expected to revive these policies, pressuring Iran both militarily and through sanctions.

However, the geopolitical dynamics have shifted since Trump’s first term. The China-brokered détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the Gulf states’ increasing economic self-reliance have reduced regional appetite for direct confrontation with Tehran. In this context, Trump’s approach could clash with the Gulf leaders’ recent focus on stability and pragmatic diplomacy.

In a surprising development, Elon Musk recently held informal talks with Iran’s UN ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani, shortly after Trump’s election. This marks a significant departure from traditional diplomacy and shows that Trump is not averse to unconventional channels.

Musk’s growing influence in Trump’s inner circle, including his appointment to lead a yet-to-be-formed Department of Government Efficiency, suggests that the Trump administration may explore pragmatic negotiations even with adversaries. Iran likely sought the back-channel meeting to discuss sanctions relief, potentially leveraging Musk’s business interests. However, the hardline stance of Trump’s advisors, including Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth, could limit the scope for meaningful engagement with Tehran.

The Gulf states have largely welcomed Trump’s return due to his alignment with their interests, including countering Iran, promoting economic stability and expanding normalisation agreements like the Abraham Accords. Trump’s transactional approach and reduced emphasis on human rights are particularly appealing to leaders like Saudi Arabia’s MBS.

However, potential friction points remain. Trump’s push for US energy dominance and plans to impose tariffs could destabilise Gulf economies, which remain heavily reliant on oil exports. Rising interest rates in the US further complicate the economic outlook for countries like Saudi Arabia, which are in the midst of ambitious investment plans under Vision 2030.

The Gulf’s deepening ties with China add another layer of complexity. Trump is expected to intensify pressure on Chinese influence, particularly in AI and technology sectors, where both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are vying for regional dominance. These nations have invested heavily in AI as part of broader diversification strategies, creating competition and potential friction with US interests.

At the same time, Gulf states have embraced pragmatic diplomacy, engaging with regional powers like Iran and Turkey while maintaining partnerships with the US and China. This balancing act may become more precarious under Trump, as his administration seeks to align the Gulf more closely with its anti-China, anti-Iran agenda.

Trump’s first term was marked by a close rapport with authoritarian leaders, including MBS and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, whom he once referred to as ‘my favourite dictator’. His willingness to overlook human rights abuse, such as the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, signalled a pragmatic, if controversial, approach to foreign policy.

This trend is expected to continue in his second term, further entrenching authoritarian regimes across the Middle East. While this may provide short-term stability, it carries the risk of suppressing civil society and opposition movements, undermining longer term prospects for democratisation.

Trump’s return to power comes at a time of unprecedented challenges for the Middle East. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Iran’s nuclear ambitions and shifting alliances among Gulf states create a volatile backdrop for US engagement. While some Arab leaders view Trump as a stabilising force, his unpredictability and transactional style can easily exacerbate tensions.

For Palestinians, a Trump presidency means further marginalisation and diminished prospects for statehood. For Iran, it signals renewed confrontation and economic isolation. For Israel, it offers unqualified support to advance its Zionist agenda. And for the Gulf states, it poses economic and strategic dilemmas, requiring delicate navigation of competing interests with the US, China and other global powers.

The Middle East stands on the brink of further upheaval. Trump’s ‘art of the deal’ is unlikely to deliver the peace and prosperity he promised and is far more likely to exacerbate existing fractures.

Ashok Swain is professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, Sweden