Trump 2.0: The shape of things to come

The expected evolution of a malevolent empire is patently in evidence. Malevolent not just for the United States of America, which enthusiastically endorsed it, but for the international community as well. Come 20 January, the world’s most economically and militarily powerful country will swear-in Donald Trump, a convicted felon, as its president.

Will he extend his avowed agenda of being tough with China to Beijing’s ‘all-weather friend’ Pakistan? It doesn’t seem likely. The Muslim League (N) in Pakistan, now in government, has traditionally been closer to the Republicans than the Democrats. Trump fancies himself as a dealmaker; and could revisit his desire to broker a settlement between India and Pakistan. Remember his remark in his previous term, when he said Narendra Modi had asked him to mediate!

It should, therefore, not be surprising if Trump’s transactional approach translates to pressurising New Delhi into achieving normalcy with Islamabad. He could, in fact, see this proposition as lower hanging fruit than establishing peace between Israel and Palestine.

While some of his choices for his cabinet — if confirmed by the US senate — have already sent shockwaves through the system, not all of Trump’s provisional appointments are unacceptable. Among them is 53-year-old Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American senator from Florida state, as secretary of state. (Rubio stood in the Republican Party primaries in 2016 and defeated Trump in three states, before quitting the race.)

He was sanctioned by China for introducing measures against Chinese officials allegedly responsible for human rights abuses against ethnic minorities, particularly the Uyghurs in Xinjiang. Perceived to be a hardliner on China, Rubio will certainly attempt to check China’s ascent as an economic, military and diplomatic power.

Alongside him will be Mike Waltz as national security adviser and John Radcliffe as director of the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency), the US’s external espionage organisation. Both are China hawks. The former is also a decorated army veteran.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already said that the war between Russia and Ukraine — now on for more than 1,000 days — will end sooner with Trump in the White House. This indicates his realisation that the US’s practically blank cheque backing of Ukraine under Biden will be discontinued by Trump.

The Russian ambassador to the UN in Geneva, Gennady Gatilov, stated that his country would be open to negotiations on ending the conflict if they were initiated by Trump. This can only mean that Moscow sees prospects of a favourable deal with Trump across the table.

The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, resorted to realpolitik by speaking on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin. When Zelenskyy called it a breach of Western solidarity, Scholz defended his decision, pleasing both left and right populists in Germany who want a resumption of diplomacy. (Germany sees a midterm election in three months.)

Biden knows only too well that Trump will be a soft target for Putin. This explains his greenlighting the use of sophisticated 190-mile range American-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) supplied to Ukraine. This will enable Ukrainian forces to hold on to their incursion in the Russian Kursk region as a bargaining chip as and when peace talks occur.

Putin hit back by revising Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which will now consider aggression from any non-nuclear country in tandem with a nuclear country to be a joint attack on Russia. Meanwhile, an estimated 11,000 North Korean troops are being deployed to retake Kursk. In these circumstances, what the Western military alliance NATO’s mandate will be after Trump is sworn in is cause for unease across Europe — apart from Hungary, which currently has a pro-Putin prime minister in Viktor Orban.

There are widespread fears Trump will sharply increase import tariffs — perhaps as high as 60 per cent for a few items — thereby triggering a trade war. He is not one to listen to the World Trade Organization, World Bank, IMF or United Nations agencies.

If he pursues what he promised during his campaign, China, Europe and Japan — perhaps even ASEAN as a bloc — may be compelled to retaliate. This will inevitably create transcontinental turmoil, which does not concern him. The fallout of the upheaval, though, ought to concern India, since Narendra Modi has run up a burgeoning trade deficit and national debt of $2.4 trillion. There are apprehensions that Trump will demand greater defence orders, in lieu of cooperation on China, which Modi will find difficult to refuse.

The US will not be spared either. The rise in import duties, with no competitive compensation from domestic production, will logically generate inflation. This will not please Americans. It will be interesting to see the outcome of midterm elections to the US senate and House of Representatives in 2026.

Trump’s selection of Matt Gaetz as attorney-general suggests he is in no mood to temper his aggressive election talk. This federal lawmaker from Florida has been facing a long-running investigation by a Congressional ethics committee into charges of drug abuse, bribery and sex with a minor. Gaetz says this is a ‘smear campaign’.

As a Trump loyalist, he is entrusted to ensure that the federal lawsuits against the incoming president, including instigating the siege of the Congressional building in Washington in January 2021 following his defeat to Joe Biden four years ago, are stalled.

Trump has been phoning members of the senate committee that will ratify his proposals to give Gaetz the nod. The sentencing in the New York case where he was found guilty of felony is now uncertain.

India should also be worried about the impending ejection of millions of undocumented migrants in the US. This would affect hundreds of thousands of Indians, who have been running away from Modi’s India of record joblessness to desperately seek the America dream.

An extremist anti-immigration brigade will implement Trump’s policy. It will have South Dakota governor Kristi Noem as secretary of homeland security, Stephen Miller in a dual role of deputy chief of staff for policy at the White House and adviser to the department of homeland security, and Tom Homan as ‘border tzar’. They are unlikely to be sympathetic to cases involving family separation.

Among Trump’s other alarming nominations is Pete Hegseth, a rabid pro-Trump Fox News TV channel host, as defence secretary. He has advocated pardoning soldiers accused of war crimes and opposed women in combat functions. He was described by Paul Rieckhoff of Independent Veterans of America on X as ‘undoubtedly the least qualified nominee for SecDef in American history’.

Robert F. Kennedy Junior, an anti-vaccine activist, as health secretary is horrifying. Professor Devi Sridhar, chair of global health at Edinburgh University, said of him in the Guardian that none of his claims ‘are true’.

The tendentious Elon Musk, owner of Tesla and X, and Vivek Ramaswamy, an Indian-origin businessman and erstwhile short-lived Republican presidential candidate, will pilot a new department of government efficiency. Their aim will be to retrench federal bureaucracy by roughly a third. A recipe for significant unemployment!

Elise Stefanik, a representative for New York state, could be the US ambassador to the UN. She is likely to be authorised to be combative, having previously called for defunding the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees.

Finally, Tulsi Gabbard, who served in the US military in Iraq, could serve as director of national intelligence. A former Democratic representative for Hawaii, she has pivoted across the aisle to become a Trump supporter. Of half-Samoan descent, her mother Carol became interested in Hinduism and renamed her daughter Tulsi, who apparently took to Vaishnava Hinduism in her teens via the ISKCON (International Society for Krishna Consciousness).

Ashis Ray can be found on X @ashiscray