SP-BSP alliance shows the way for anti-BJP grand alliance

After almost 25 years, SP and BSP came together for the Phulpur and Gorakhpur parliamentary by-elections. The parties were in a contesting relationship for a long time. The political enmity between their leaders became personal and this also seeped down to their grassroot cadres. But now, Mayawati has formed a strategic pact with the Akhilesh Yadav-led SP. This political pact now seems like evolving as an alliance.

The results of the UP by-elections are encouraging for formation of a long-term alliance. The SP, supported by BSP, won both the seats. Political analysts were able to forecast the possibilities of a BJP loss in Phulpur. But most of them thought that the BJP would continue its hold on Gorakhpur.

But Praveen Nishad won the seat and defeated BJP candidate Upendra Shukla by a comfortable margin. Nagendra Singh Patel won Phulpur seat by defeating Kaushalendra Patel of the BJP. As we know, Gorakhpur has been UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s stronghold and the bypoll for Phoolpur was necessitated by the resignation of UP Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya who won the seat in 2014.

The results have put the ruling party in a spot. These are not simple defeats. These constituencies are linked to the prestige of the Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister of UP. They are going to set the tone and tenor of the next general elections. The political history of this country has shown that the Hindi heartland determines who forms the government at the Centre.

It seems clear now that the success of the SP-BSP experiment may facilitate evolution of a long-term political alliance between these two parties. Both have their own caste-based social bases. A political alliance between them may encourage more cohesive social alliance which we observed in this election between OBCs and SCs. This may result in a large percentage of Dalit-OBC votes in the Hindi region, especially in UP, being stamped on the alliance.

Although Mayawati is a tough negotiator and it is difficult to predict about the longevity of such alliances, SP and BSP’s urge to recover their ground may see them sticking together at least till the coming parliamentary election and the UP Assembly polls. Soon after the bypoll victories, Akhilesh Yadav visited the residence of Mayawati. Both leaders have given clear indications of forming a long-term anti-BJP political alliance.

This may encourage other regional parties to come together to form a mahagathbandhan. In Bihar, the success of the RJD-led gatbandhan in the recently held bypolls will also determine the political trajectory of the Hindi heartland.

In Bihar, RJD has already emerged as a pole attracting anti-BJP forces towards itself. Recently, Jitan Ram Manjhi also shifted to the RJD-led gathbandhan that also includes the Congress. In UP, other small parties may also join this emerging axis of non-BJP politics. Recently, the Rashtriya Lok Dal also announced its support to the SP-BSP gatbandhan. The distance between the BJP and small NDA parties is also growing.

In this politics of mahagathbandhan, the Congress may work as the nucleus in the Centre. All these alliances in various states may form a pyramidical structure of mahagathbandhans in national politics which may contest against the NDA. This may change the political equilibrium in the Hindi belt where the BJP has built a base in the recent past. It is interesting to note that many of these state-based alliances have close ties with the Congress. In Bihar, it is the RJD. In UP, SP has already contested the 2017 Assembly elections in alliance with the Congress. Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi share a better understanding between each other as youth leaders and leaders of anti-BJP politics.

Rahul Gandhi has expressed his respect about Kanshi Ram and has shown his soft corner for the Mayawati-led BSP politics. In states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab, this mahagathbandhan politics may take shape under the leadership of the Congress. In Haryana, Punjab, MP and Rajasthan, there are some pockets where the BSP has its presence. So through various processes negotiations, these state-based gathbandhans may turn into an anti-BJP mahagathbandhan for the 2019 elections.

In non-Hindi states like West Bengal, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, third front mobilisation is already in the air. We will have to see whether this third front and the Congress-led mahagathbandhan emerge separately and contest independently in the Lok Sabha polls or if they morph into an anti-BJP axis. We will have to closely watch what shift comes in Left politics and whether they are going to join the Congress-led mahagathbandhan or the third front.

Nothing is clear yet, but the success of the SP-BSP poll pact has opened up the possibility of a complete realignment of forces in the Hindi belt. Sonia Gandhi has already taken the initiative to start dialogues with regional parties. Rahul Gandhi has already started meeting these leaders. All activities are hinting towards formation of an anti-BJP grand alliance in the near future.