Nepal stares at political instability due to irreconcilable differences between Oli, Prachanda

The inevitable has happened. Nepal’s Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli lost the trust vote in Parliament on Monday by 93 votes for and 124 against. But he has not resigned, which political propriety demanded that he do.

Immediately after the voting, President Bidya Devi Bhandari prorogued Parliament.

Oli had lost parliamentary majority when the other faction of the Nepal Communist Party led by Puspa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda withdrew support to his faction.

The Nepal Communist Party (NCP) was formed in May 2018, when the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) led by Oli and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) led by Prachanda merged to form a single party. But even after unification, the two factions of the NCP continued to quarrel and the differences between Oli and Prachanda continued to widen.

In March this year, the country’s Supreme Court struck down the unification of the two factions to form the NCP. The bench pointed out that a party named NCP had already been registered with the Election Commission by one Rishiram Kattel before the formation of Oli and Prachanda’s NCP. Two parties with the same name cannot be registered and so the merger of the Oli and Prachanda’s factions to form another party named NCP was not valid, it said.

Kattel had challenged the Election Commission’s registration of Oli and Prachanda’s NCP on the plea that he had registered his NCP prior to the formation of Oli and Prachanda’s party with the same name.

Meanwhile, the bickering within the NCP continued. Ultimately, in December last year, Prachanda’s faction of the NCP “removed” Oli from the co-chairmanship of the party and decided to take “disciplinary action” against him. The NCP was virtually split in two years after its formation.

Oli ran to President Bhandari and got her to dissolve the Parliament. She announced that midterm elections would be held in two phases, on April 30 and May 10. Oli continued to be the Prime Minister.

Again, Nepal’s Supreme Court intervened in February and restored the dissolved Parliament. This was another setback for Oli. Now, even after having lost majority in Parliament, Oli still clings to power by the courtesy of the President.

There seem to be two alternatives. The first is to form a coalition government of the Nepali Congress, the Prachanda faction of the now dissolved NCP and the Janata Samajvadi Party of Mahant Thakur. The second is to go for fresh elections.

But the possibility of forming a coalition government is remote as Thakur has already stated that his party would not join any coalition. But without the JSP, no government formation is possible because the Nepali Congress and the Prachanda group do not have the requisite majority.

The general elections of 2017 gave a fractured mandate, with no party emerging with a decisive majority in the 275 member Parliament. The CPN(UML) of Oli got a total of 121 seats, the Nepali Congress 63 and the CPN(MC) of Prachanda 36 seats. Smaller parties secured between 10 and one seats.

It was then that the two Communist Parties decided to merge so that a government could be formed. But the experiment failed. The two communist parties fell apart. Nepal is back to square one now.

Political instability in Nepal at this moment when the country is fighting the COVID pandemic is a most unfortunate development. The Human Rights Watch has already warned Kathmandu that if it does not act urgently, the rapidly escalating virus cases will have a “devastating impact on public health” as the health care system is reaching a “breaking point.”

But political instability is likely to continue as Nepali voters are fiercely loyal to their respective parties. Any possibility of a patch-up between the two factions of the communist parties is out of the question because of the incompatibility of the character and personality of Oli and Prachanda. After unification, repeated attempts were made to resolve the differences between the two but without avail.

At a meeting of the 13-member Standing Committee of the united party, a work division between Oli and Prachanda was hammered out. It was decided that Prachanda would be the executive chairman of the party with full powers and be in charge of organizational affairs and Oli would look after the government and administrative affairs. But they drifted apart.

China made a desperate attempt to avoid a split in the NCP. The Chinese ambassador to Kathmandu, Hou Yanqi, deviated from protocol and directly intervened in the affairs of the NCP but failed to bring about a rapprochement between the two factions.

A coalition government of parties excluding the Oli faction does not seem an immediate possibility. The prospect of the stalemate being resolved and Nepal getting a stable and functioning government does not seem bright at the moment.

(IPA Service)

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