Narendra Modi’s desperation after the first two rounds of polling is evident. His popularity rating has nosedived says a C-Voter survey since early March and the polling in the first two rounds, these surveys suggest, have gone against the BJP. Even a usually cautious CSDS Director Sanjay Kumar conceded that the first round of polling did not favour the ruling party. It was ‘Disadvantage BJP’, he concluded that if the trend continued BJP could well find itself in a tight spot.
On the day of the second round of polling, emphasised a Singapore based Big Data analytics company studying polling in Uttar Pradesh, BJP workers lost their heart by Noon. In any case the major states in the South, where polling took place in the second round, BJP was not expected to do well in any case. In fact, the ruling party is likely to draw a blank in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
In addition, the party faced an uphill task in Karnataka where the combined numbers of the Congress-JD(S) alliance threatened to upstage the BJP. To cut a long story short, in the four southern states, after two rounds of polling, seats BJP could hope to win looked unlikely to get into double digits.
In Uttar Pradesh, BJP has even more to worry about. While retaining 73 of the 80 seats it had won in 2018 was always going to be a tall order, unexpectedly the SP-BSP alliance in the state appears to be working on the ground. Political observers have been quick to cite the assembly election in 1993 when despite the Babri mosque demolition in 1992, a SP-BSP alliance trumped BJP in the state. So, UP has also not brought much cheer to the BJP so far.
In the third round of polling slated for tomorrow, April 23, also the BJP is on slippery ground. It is unlikely to sweep Gujarat and win all the 26 seats it had won in 2014. In Kerala too, it is unlikely to make a dent. The party is on the back foot in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Bihar and Bengal. Indeed, every round of polling is adding to the losses of the BJP in terms of seats and the deficit is growing.
BJP leaders including Narendra Modi and Amit Shah’s growing frustration, therefore, is not surprising. Their attempts to divert attention away from the economy, joblessness, farm distress and the Government’s monumental blunders at Demonetisation and a hurried GST have not worked. Even the air strike at Balakot and BJP leaders harping on nationalism no longer carry much credibility or conviction.
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People are increasingly asking inconvenient questions and the smokescreen of nationalism has not succeeded in clouding the issues that concern the nation. The average voter has seen through the game and is demanding answers to questions over the Government’s performance during the last five years.
That explains why the BJP pulled out terror accused Pragya Singh Thakur from the closet, dusted her and presented her as its candidate in Bhopal. Both Modi and Shah are now harping on her in every election speech, asserting that she has been fielded to ‘punish’ the Congress and that she is the answer to people who coined the term ‘Hindu Terror’. The campaign in a way has come full circle with the poster boy of 2014 who won on the plank of Development or Vikas, now falling back of rabid Hindutva and revenge for a perceived slight to Hindus.
By defending Pragya Singh’s coarse claims of having cursed the late martyr, a decorated police officer Hemant Karkare who was instrumental in arresting her, BJP has upset a large number of people in Maharashtra. But by persisting with their defence, they have indicated they do not mind the self-goal. Or, what is more plausible, is that they now see no other option but to try and ride on Pragya Singh’s Hindutva in the hope that she would bail them out.
Modi clearly wants to drag the opposition to his own turf and contest the election on his terms. The attempt is to paint himself a Hindu hero and the opposition as anti-national and some kind of 21st century Muslim League.
The opposition should avoid falling in his trap. Pragya Singh Thakur is just one BJP candidate and she should be left to be dealt with the party. Let her fate be decided by the people and voters of Bhopal. Any attempt to turn her into a pan-India issue will work to the advantage of BJP and Modi. This is what he wants.
The average voter, other than his bhakts, seem to be fed-up with Modi. He wants change. His issues are more economic rather than the engineered communal frenzy over Pragya Singh’s terrorist past. India is too large a country and knows well how to handle candidates like Pragya Singh.
The opposition should therefore stick to core economic issues that bother the people, on radical and lasting solutions, on surgical strikes on poverty as NYAY in the Congress manifesto promises to do.
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