Kashmir: two steps forward and one step back…       

As if half a million security force personnel (BSF, CRPF, ITBP, RR, SSB, CISF and of course the police and the Army) in the state are not enough, the elite National Security Guards (NSG) have been deployed in the state to fight militants within days of Governor’s Rule imposed on the state.

The ‘Black Cats’ have arrived and armed with MP-5 assault rifles, Glock pistols, corner shot guns and wall busting explosives, they are likely to be deployed in heavily populated areas.

Curiously, the number of ‘militants’ that this huge force is expected to overcome is pegged at less than 300. Commander of the Srinagar headquartered 15 Corps, Lt General Anil Kumar Bhatt was quoted as saying, “At least 250 to 275 active militants are present in the Kashmir Valley.” He also said that nearly 30 militants are ready to infiltrate from Pakistan.

If that estimate is correct, why does the state need the NSG to deal with 300 militants, wonders human rights activist Khurram Pervez.

Governor’s rule

The term of NN Vohra (82) as Governor, which was to expire at the end of June, has been extended till the end of the Amarnath Pilgrimage, on August 26.

Vohra is an experienced hand. After serving as Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister of India, Home Secretary of India, he first appeared in Jammu and Kashmir as an interlocutor in 2003. It is believed that he played an important role in bringing moderate Hurriyat leaders to meet Prime Minister Vajpayee and his Deputy LK Advani in 2004.

He continued as an interlocutor till he assumed charge as Governor in 2008. Veteran journalist and Editor Tahir Mohiddin says that it will be difficult for a new Governor to attain the kind of acceptance in political and social circles of Jammu and Kashmir that Vohra has.

“I think he (NN Vohra) has earned immense respect across the state during the past 10 years as a Governor,” Mohiddin told National Herald. People across J&K seem happy with Governor’s rule in the state, expecting “less politics” and “more development” in future. “I am not a supporter of Governor’s rule in the state but the truth is that we enjoy better governance in Governor’s Rule than under an elected dispensation.” Rakesh Gupta, president of Jammu Chamber of Commerce and Industries (JCCI), told National Herald.

Article 370 and 35A under threat

The BJP has pledged to scrap Article 370 of the Constitution, which gives special status to Jammu and Kashmir. Just two days after BJP pulled the plug on its coalition with PDP, BJP Member of Parliament Subramanian Swamy tweeted, “Why Article 370 can be deleted without Parliament’s concurrence, by a Presidential concurrence.” Pertinently, the BJP led government at the Centre has already called for a “debate” on Article 35A, which grants certain benefits to the inhabitants of the state. This article, which is already under challenge in Supreme Court, protects the rights of permanent residents of Jammu and Kashmir over property, jobs and scholarships.

“Abrogation of Article 370 has always been just a poll promise of the BJP. Only Parliament has the power to amend the Constitution to change this provision. And then there will be repercussions. This will be a fatal blunder for New Delhi,” says Noor Ahmad Baba, former head of Kashmir University’s Political Science Department.

Dilution of Article 370 and 35A will allow people from outside the state to settle in J&K which will eventually change the demography of this Muslim-majority state.

Elections unlikely in near future

Though Jammu and Kashmir Assembly has been placed in suspended animation and not dissolved, all major parties like PDP, BJP, National Conference and Congress have made it clear that they are not interested in forming any government. While fresh elections in the state are, therefore, inevitable sooner or later, the law and order situation is not deemed to be conducive for polls.

While byelection for the Anantnag Lok Sabha seat, vacated by Mehbooba Mufti, has not been held since February, 2016, extensive violence marred polling for Srinagar-Badgam Parliamentary seat in April last year. Only a 6.5 per cent turnout, the lowest in 30 years, was recorded and violence claimed nine lives. There has not been much improvement on the ground since then. Therefore, Assembly elections do not seem possible in the near future.

The way forward

Former Chief of Army Staff General Ved Prakash Malik, the former chief of the Northern Command Lt General (Retired) DS Hooda and Lt General (Retired) HS Panag are among several experts who have stressed on the need for a political process for a solution to the Kashmir problem.

General Malik is on record having said, “Conflict resolution has to be done at the political level. It’s not right to place the complete burden either on the Army or CRPF. If the Army is expected to resolve the Kashmir issue single-handedly, it cannot be done. A political solution is a final solution.”

Lt General DS Hooda, who planned and oversaw the surgical strikes by Indian Army in Pakistani side of LoC, while in service in 2016, said, “Everybody is suffering. Government employees, traders, school children, teachers, mainstream leaders and even police and forces have suffered …So my appeal to everyone, including the separatists, is (let’s) join hands to restore peace as a single party can’t do it alone.”

Critics say that the BJP is using Kashmir as an “ideological pawn” for the coming national elections. The tone of Amit Shah’s speech in Jammu on Saturday also suggested that he was addressing BJP voters across the country.

“The BJP will use its Kashmir policy to lure voters in the rest of the country,” said CPI (M) leader Mohammad Yousuf Tarigami.