Jammu-Kashmir: Tussle begins for a powerless legislature

The meaning of Assembly elections was already turned on its head before the announcement of polls in Jammu and Kashmir. The first seismic jolt came on 5 August 2019 with the J&K Reorganisation Act when the state was split like an atom, cleaved into two Union territories — Ladakh without an elected Assembly and Jammu and Kashmir with an elected Assembly. Then came the other changes.

Under the Indian constitution, Union territories, with or without legislative assemblies, do not enjoy powers equivalent to a state and remain units that are more directly controlled, to varying degrees. The 2019 move, which also stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its autonomy, was, however, an unprecedented case of demotion.

When sweeping powers over any legislative business were given to the lieutenant-governor by the Central government ahead of the poll announcement, it was a simple endorsement of that demotion. An endorsement that ended the suspense over the limits of power any future legislature or government of Jammu and Kashmir would enjoy.

Cautious optimism in J&K

That is why, while the poll announcement is being bandied about as a festival of democracy by the Election Commission of India and the Bharatiya Janata Party, the response within Jammu and Kashmir thus far is one of guarded optimism.

The regional political players, particularly the two main dynasties, are caught in a ‘should we, shouldn’t we’ bind. Having governed full-fledged states, contesting for a legislature that appears more like a large municipal council, their predicament is nothing short of a dharam sankat.

The other challenge for the regional players, whose political narrative was always pivoted to the erstwhile state’s autonomy, is that regional players, whose political narrative was always pivoted to the erstwhile state’s autonomy, is that they can neither cling on to the ‘370 abrogation’ rhetoric nor discard it completely. To give it up would be treason to their ideological moorings and a sign of humiliation. To walk around with its shroud would be to trap themselves in a time warp.

With increased realism at the ground level, the electorate is losing its appetite for promises that ring hollow. There is the sinking realisation that what has happened since 2019 is irreversible.

The “hands of the clock cannot be turned back”, Indira Gandhi had famously said about Kashmir. If history is a guide, leave aside the restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy, even its statehood seems like a remote possibility — at least in the near future.

Despite these challenges, the regional parties will, in all probability, soon gear up and enter the fray. As will the Congress which is a key player in the Jammu region. They have no option but to scrabble for the symbolic crumbs that the legislature offers in its new avatar.

Preliminary reading of factors

What political dynamics will unfold over the next few weeks and what might be the composition of the new truncated legislature? This will depend on several factors, primarily the manner in which the BJP, Congress and other parties form or shed alliances and play their cards, the way voter enthusiasms wax or wane and what kind of voting patterns appear.

So far, there is an indication that voting would, by and large, be on the lines of the parliamentary polls. Despite the clipped wings of any prospective legislature, these Assembly polls assume a certain significance and interest for voters.

Crushed by the arrogance of bureaucracy coupled with the brutality of militarisation, irrespective of regional differences, the people are craving for democratic representation that will allow them the luxury of taking up day-to-day issues of bread, butter and basic amenities — the normal ingredients of any functional democracy. In the Kashmir valley, where imposed silence and a sense of humiliation under acute repression drove people in hordes to the polling booths in the recent Lok Sabha polls, voting as an act of vengeance may continue to be a motivating factor in the Assembly polls.

But it is too early to predict anything with any precision. As the common refrain goes: there’s nothing predictable about Jammu and Kashmir, neither its weather nor its politics. Now, it is difficult to predict even the terrain.

The realignment of electoral boundaries in the delimitation — allegedly a case of manipulative redistricting to suit the BJP’s electoral fortunes — has left most constituencies drastically reshaped and beyond anyone’s comprehension.

Kashmir’s formidable regional players

One can only speculate about the possible permutations and combinations, taking the recent parliamentary polls as a benchmark.

Kashmir is more predictable where key regional players — the National Conference with its freshly rejuvenated cadre and, to a much lesser extent, the badly bruised and battered Peoples Democratic Party — still have a formidable presence. The BJP did not field any candidates during the parliamentary polls but relied on proxy parties which performed miserably. The Congress, which contested in alliance with the National Conference, did not field candidates either.

The National Conference won two of the three Lok Sabha seats, including the Anantnag-Rajouri seat reshaped by tagging the Pir Panjal area of Jammu province with the valley. The third seat was won by an independent — the still-in-jail Sheikh Abdul Rashid (popularly known as Engineer Rashid) who emerged as a symbol of Kashmir’s collective victimhood and enjoys a clean image.

The parliamentary verdict in Kashmir was clear. It voted against the BJP and will continue to do so. Given a choice, it would oust the lesser evils — the PDP, which allied with the BJP in 2014, as well as the National Conference which carries the historic baggage of enabling New Delhi’s manipulations and the erosion of the state’s autonomy in the past.

Whether the BJP attempts to hoist its saffron flag in the valley or fires salvos from the shoulders of its proxies, or whether the Congress backs the National Conference in Kashmir may be immaterial.

The Congress does not have a strong presence in the region but influences some pockets. So do political formations like the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference and Apni Party, which the BJP backed. Would any of them be able to manage to grab a couple of seats?

Two-time legislator Rashid is a one-man show. Might there be other such lesser-known but acceptable faces joining the fray? All these factors together may be sufficient to contain the National Conference or the PDP.

The unpredictability of Jammu region

In Jammu region, while both parliamentary seats were bagged by the BJP in 2024, its victory margin was significantly reduced. Voting patterns indicated that the party’s vote share was minimal in the hilly Muslim majority districts of Jammu region, where more people voted for the Congress.

Jammu usually follows the general voting pattern of mainland India. Hence, guided by different needs, the people may vote differently in the Assembly elections as compared to the parliamentary elections.

Despite a strong Hindutva constituency, there is deep-rooted resentment against the BJP within Jammu post the abrogation of Article 370, stemming from the loss of protections concerning land and jobs. In the parliamentary polls, Jammu’s two constituencies went to polls in the first and the second phases of the long drawn-out electoral process. Since then, Modi’s persona — the key element in all BJP campaigns — has dwindled and the pan-Indian appeal of the Congress has deepened. This may benefit the latter in the region.

While a Congress alliance with the National Conference may be of little consequence in the valley, it is in Jammu’s Chenab Valley and Pir Panjal areas where this can be a gamechanger. Any division of votes in pockets where the National Conference and the PDP have a strong influence would enable the BJP to snap up more seats in the Jammu region. Delimitation has already created more Hindu majority constituencies that are seen as beneficial to the BJP in these areas. The Ghulam Nabi Azad factor, which made a huge dent in the Congress vote during parliamentary polls, might aid the BJP’s electoral fortunes in the Chenab Valley.

While much will depend on the possible alliances between the Congress and the National Conference, with or without the PDP in tow, a lot will also depend on the BJP’s ability to pull a rabbit out of its hat. Its repeated rants on religion, mandir, nationalism and security no longer find currency in Jammu, barring among its hardcore supporters. Will it invent a new political narrative? Or will this resource-rich party resort to manipulation by other means?

The BJP’s dismantling of Jammu and Kashmir — the only Muslim-majority state in the country — was an ideologically driven move to fulfil its long-held ambition of changing the region’s demography as well as planting a Hindu chief minister. This deep desire is at the bottom of the delay in holding the Assembly polls.

The fact that the long-awaited elections in Jammu and Kashmir have finally been announced and given preference over Jharkhand and Maharashtra, makes people ask the unsettling question: What is the BJP’s game plan? A lot will depend on that.

As of now, the only certainty is a future Assembly that is powerless and marked by the absence of Ladakhi faces.

Anuradha Bhasin is managing editor of Kashmir Times. This piece first appeared in Newslaundry