Indo-Nepal relations: A roller coaster ride

Indo-Nepal relations have flourished in the past at four different levels, namely at the levels of the people, civil society, business and the Government. This was buttressed by an open border, which made Indo-Nepal relations unique and special.

Ideally, people to people relations are what should matter, followed by other interests, governments figuring at the very bottom. But thanks to political establishments and governance structures on both sides, it is the relationship between the two governments, which has assumed foremost importance.

The overwhelming sway of the two governments on media and society serves to undermine the other critical players, who influence the relationship. This becomes even more complicated when the two governments draw inspiration from specific ideologies. The contradictions and distorted priorities get magnified at the first sign of friction and seem to have affected the assiduously nurtured relations between the two countries.

Bilateral relations between India and Nepal today resemble the hostile and belligerent diplomatic and media exchanges after the hijacking of the Indian Airlines (IC 814 KathmanduDelhi) flight to Kandahar in Afghanistan in 1999. The difference this time is that the exchanges have not been triggered by a sudden development or derailed by one single factor. The derailment was in the making for the past several years.

Prime Minister Modi’s historic visit to Nepal in August 2014, which mesmerised Nepalese society and establishment, was followed by an equally successful visit during the SAARC summit in November 2014. But the visits were swiftly followed by so much acrimony, discord and discontentment that relations went swiftly downhill.

The domestic situation in Nepal had been fragile. A number of coalition governments were formed for short durations during the period 2008-2015. Some of them lasted for just a few months. The adoption of a new Constitution in September 2015 was an enviable task. India had concerns with regard to people in Nepal’s terai region, the ‘Madheshis’. To reassert India’s sensitivities, the Indian Foreign Secretary visited Nepal in September 2015, which was seen in Nepal as interference and micro-management by India. Violence erupted in the terai areas. This was followed by an economic blockade by India from September 2015 itself which caused tremendous hardship to the Nepalese.

This blockade led to a slow down - and even closure of many operations in the wake of severe shortages of gas and oil. Nepalese leaders turned towards China for supplies and support, partly as a tactical move. Anti-Indian sentiment and Nepal’s tilt towards China had been witnessed during the economic blockade by India back in 1989 as well.

Nepal has changed since 1989. Communist parties have gained considerable following among the people. For the first time constitutionally provided federal structure was also operationalised. In the local, provincial and national elections held during 2016-2017, Nepali Congress, traditionally supportive of India, got decimated. Communists and Maoists won a decisive victory. Nationalism laced with anti-Indianism were the rallying cry in the election.

In 2018 Communist Party of Nepal (UML) led by Prime Minister Oli and CPN (Maoist Centre) led by Prachanda merged into a single and formidable party and became known as Nepal Communist Party (NCP). They have 174 members in the 275 member House of Representatives. Historically this is the first firmly entrenched communist government in Nepal.

The indefinite postponement of the SAARC Summit at India’s behest even while Nepal continues to remain its Chairperson, China’s deeper and wider engagement, Nepal’s participation in the gigantic Belt and Road Initiative coupled with India’s over emphasis on the sensitivities of the Madheshis(14 % of population) were instrumental in changing the political narrative in Nepal. India’s stubborn stand allowed anti-India forces in Nepal to gain the upper hand. It was therefore not an accident when the NCP government approved and published a new map of Nepal that showed Lipulekh, Limipiadhura and Kalapani as parts of Nepal. What surprised all Nepal observers was the way India consistently ignored this unprecedented assertion by Nepal for the past many months.

In fact, on 24 November 2019, a civil society group publicly unveiled the new political map in Kathamndu. This Border Protection Campaign group which consist of former widely respected bureaucrats including Water Resources Secretary and Director General of Survey Department made vociferous arguments in support of their claim.

Over the next seven months till this new map was unanimously passed by the Nepalese parliament, India failed to even initiate a dialogue. The strident and public position of the Nepalese Prime Minister on the subject received a terse response from the official spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs in India. The Nepalese media immediately projected it as yet another humiliation by India. When Prime Minster Oli made other political statements mainly aiming at his domestic constituency, a section of the Indian media went on an overdrive, some even hysterically describing Nepal as ‘another Pakistan’ in the making. This came as a shock to people both in India and in Nepal.

There is indeed no comparison between India’s relationship with Nepal and Nepal’s relations with China. It’s a difference of “aakash and pataal” (sky and earth), “nyano and chiiisho” (warmth and frigid cold) and “bistrit and sukshma” (widespread and tiny), as many Nepalese see it. Nepal and India are bound by spirituality, common culture, geography and a sense of belongingness.

But by buying into the propaganda of Nepal’s tilt towards China and China influencing Nepal’s politics, India is only exhibiting its own insecurities and undermining history, trade and culture. India’s diplomatic weaknesses are getting exposed in the process. There is a huge cost in deliberately pushing Nepal towards China, just because some people in India do not like certain political parties, ideologies, leaders or decision makers. What Nepal wants is no different to what other countries also desire i.e. recognition of its sovereignty, national identity and treatment as equals.

What India wants is to safeguard its national security and the open border that has served the interests of the two nations well. India, while recognising the huge transformation that Nepal is undergoing, must reset its priorities. Nepalese people’s interest should be upper most in India’s mind and not the ever-changing stance, shape and orientation of political parties.