Costly adventurism on foreign soil

Canada has detonated the diplomatic equivalent of a nuclear device. According to the Washington Post, Canadian officials claim they have evidence that the attacks and surveillance of pro-Khalistan Sikhs in Canada were directly authorised by Union home minister Amit Shah — Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s right-hand man since his days as chief minister of Gujarat.

On 14 October, the Post wrote: ‘Canadian officials shared details about the references to Shah and other evidence with India’s national security adviser [NSA], Ajit Doval, at a secret meeting in Singapore on Saturday [12 October].’

Doval is said to have been told by the Canadian NSA that Indian diplomats in Canada were digging for information about anti-India Sikhs in Canada (‘either through paid informants or by extorting and threatening individuals within the communities’, the New York Times added) and sharing this with India’s external espionage agency RAW (Research and Analysis Wing), who were using the so-called Lawrence Bishnoi gang (lately in the news for a possible hand in the murder of Maharashtra politician Baba Siddique) to liquidate them. The Post further reported that Doval reacted by saying India ‘would deny any link to the Nijjar murder and any link to any other violence in Canada no matter what the evidence was’.

As is well known, Doval himself has been summoned by a New York court in a complaint filed by Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a Khalistani who was the target of an assassination attempt on American soil last year, allegedly by Indian authorities.

Quoting a Canadian official, the NYT further reports that at least one more killing was being seen as a part of the crimes committed by the Bishnoi gang — that of Sukhdool Singh Gill, a Winnipeg-based Sikh. No one, though, has been detained for this yet.

It may be recalled that Shah was accused of three murders when he was Gujarat’s home minister and was detained for a few months before being granted bail prior to an anticipated trial. This case was, however, controversially dropped after the BJP came to power at the Centre in 2014.

Shah is India’s home minister, so his jurisdiction is supposed to be home affairs. It is surprising, to say the least, that he is suspected of playing a hand in an overseas operation, usually the domain of external espionage agencies. But if the government of India is indeed manipulating the Bishnoi gang — with gang leader Lawrence Bishnoi lodged in a high-security Gujarat prison — it is unlikely to happen without Shah’s knowledge and consent.

Conspicuously, Shah has never travelled abroad since 2006. Under Britain’s ‘universal jurisdiction’ law, for instance, Shah is liable to be prosecuted for his alleged crimes in Gujarat when he was a government minister there, if he ever visits the United Kingdom.

The row between India and Canada ignited 13 months ago when Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau said he had evidence connecting Indian agents to the assassination in Vancouver of Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar.

On 14 October, he said the RCMP (Royal Canadian Mounted Police) “have clear and compelling evidence that agents of the Indian government have engaged in and continue to engage in activities that pose a significant threat to public safety (in Canada)”.

“The evidence brought to light by the RCMP cannot be ignored. It leads to one conclusion: it is necessary to disrupt the criminal activities that continue to pose a threat to public safety in Canada,” the prime minister said.

Trudeau said Canadian law enforcement had “made several attempts” to work with opposite numbers in India, but were “repeatedly refused”. He called on India to cooperate. The Indian ministry of external affairs responded by accusing Trudeau of pursuing a “political agenda” of appeasing Canadian Sikhs for electoral gain.

In the past ten-and-a-half years under prime minister Narendra Modi, India’s outreach with the veto-wielding Permanent Five in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) have been orchestrated by his Man Friday S. Jaishankar. Said outreach first tilted towards the US; then lurched towards Russia, when arm-twisted by it; then succumbed to the flattery of the French; thought nothing of the British; and yielded to China’s unchecked economic and military gains.

If all this wasn’t bad enough already, by underestimating Canada and taking liberties with its sovereign rights, India’s state-sponsored vigilantism is putting at considerable risk its own strategic interests.

In an interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Chinmaya Gharekhan, a distinguished former Indian diplomat, said, “One reason why India has issued a very strong statement against Canada, with personal accusations levelled against Prime Minister Trudeau, but responded much more discreetly and co-operatively in the case of the Pannun allegations raised by the United States, is [that] Canada is perceived to be weak whereas America is a powerful country and India needs to show co-operation with it.”

He added, “This story isn’t good for us and the government must make every effort and as early as possible to squash this story… India’s prestige, honour and credibility will otherwise suffer.”

What India’s strategists have not realised, it seems, is that the US and Canada are aligned on the subject of the Modi government’s adventurism on North American soil. The NYT has indicated that the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has been co-operating and coordinating with the RCMP to gather evidence to support Canada’s pursuit of the Modi government.

The Canadians may not throw their weight around like the UNSC’s Big Five, but Canada is a member of the G7, of the Western military alliance NATO, and is a constituent of the most close-knit intelligence gathering, sharing and counter-espionage grouping known as the Five Eyes (the others being the US, the UK, Australia and New Zealand).

New Zealand’s foreign minister Winston Peters tweeted: ‘New Zealand has been briefed by Canada about its recent announcements on ongoing criminal investigations into violence and threats of violence against members of its South Asian community.’ This was a diplomatic signal to India that the other Five Eyes states are solidly with Canada, and that India can expect joint investigations and responses.

Indo-Canadian relations have hit rock-bottom, with Canada expelling six Indian diplomats, including the Indian high commissioner in Ottawa, and New Delhi retaliating by declaring six Canadian diplomats persona non grata.

When it comes to Trudeau and Canada, Modi’s approach has been extremely cavalier. Even though Canada-based Khalistanis or their counterparts in the US and UK pose no real threat to India’s security. If indeed, as the Americans and Canadians insist, and as British and Australian authorities attest, the Modi administration has indulged in extra-territorial, extra-judicial activities against them, these have only helped to internationalise the Khalistan issue.

It was practically a dead issue, which has been unwisely given a new lease of life. Also, as a piece in the NYT argues, ‘the wider world is now getting a glimpse of how diplomats, spies, bureaucrats and police officers who work in Indian intelligence likely operate’.

Ashis Ray can be found on X @ashiscray