Have Modi, Shah started to believe they will lose 2019? 

There are two indices which measure the declining graphs of a government more objectively than anything else. One is a government’s intolerance of the press and the other is the ruling party leaders’ use of unparliamentary language against opponents.

When a government begins taking recourse to both, one is tempted to infer that it has lost the plot and it is losing the confidence of the people.

The NDA-led government at the Centre has begun to do both. Consider the facts. First, on April 2, the Information and Broadcasting (I&B) ministry announced on its website that journalists accredited to the government would lose their accreditation for spreading “fake news”.

Within a day, the ministry withdrew the announcement following protests by journalists and opposition parties. The government said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had intervened and ordered the withdrawal of the ministry’s decree. The PMO said in its communication that Press Council of India (PCI) is the body that should address the concern over fake news.

But a day after Modi expressed his displeasure over I&B ministry’s move came another announcement. This one said the government has constituted a high-powered 10-member committee to regulate online media on the lines of print and electronic media.

It goes on to show that I&B minister Smriti Irani’s announcement over curbing fake news wasn’t her own but a decision of the government. The PMO jumped in, only to change the narrative from spread of fake news in print and electronic media to regulating digital media outfits.

Second, BJP President Amit Shah launched a salvo at the Opposition parties with an animal-world analogy. In his speech at the BJP’s 38th Foundation Day celebrations in Mumbai, Shah said “During a flood, all the rats, dogs, cheetahs, mongoose and cats climb on board a floating log to save themselves from the flood. However, they will not be safe from the Modi flood which will sweep them away.” He stated that the political flood unleashed by Modi’s popularity had made disparate and desperate parties come together to face the 2019 elections.

However, Shah later clarified, stating, “What I intended was that the parties with opposing political ideologies which could never come together have united... They include BSP-SP, TDP-Congress, Congress-Trinamool Congress,” he said at a press conference.

I revisited BJP’s first president Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s speech at the party’s foundation day at Bombay in April 1980. None of the bitterness of Janata Party’s split and then Jan Sangh’s defeat in 1980 elections was remotely visible through his speech.

Both these earlier events showcase the desperation and nervousness of the party in power. It shows the Modi government is apprehensive that digital media will adversely impact the 2019 elections. There can be no other reason why the government, in its fourth year, has suddenly woken up to control digital media. The government, especially the one that has ridden the digital wave, could have waited for a year more.

Modi and the BJP—who were the first to use social media’s power during the 2014 elections—have realised that other parties too can build their profiles reach out to the public. Congress President Rahul Gandhi’s tweets are attracting more eyeballs than Modi’s.

Increasing disenchantment with the government has been on the rise and that has led to a number of social media groups opposing his ideologies and policies. Their numbers are only likely to grow in the run-up to the Lok Sabha election.

This is not the only government which has tried to muzzle media when public opinion begins to turn against them. The Congress government headed by Rajiv Gandhi had to withdraw the anti-defamation bill after a pushback by the media, as it was seen as an attempt to control the press.

As for Amit Shah’s language, there are precedents of party leaders using shrill language against opponents. But most of the instances can be found from Modi’s speeches as chief minister and prime minister.

From calling Sonia Gandhi a “jersey cow”, Rahul Gandhi a “hybrid calf”, the “raincoat” remark about Manmohan Singh, referring to alliance of Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad Yadav and Rahul Gandhi in Bihar as “three idiots” to “50 crore ki girlfriend” jibe about Shashi Tharoor, Modi’s lexicon is replete with indecent language.

Mani Shankar Aiyer’s “chaiwala” and “neech” remarks are instances of indecent barbs thrown at political opponents.

But Amit Shah’s animal analogy touched a new low. He might have said that in the heat of moment. But isn’t losing cool a sign of desperation? One may ask if Shah was provoked by the attempt of opposition parties with different ideologies to unite against Modi, can he say how many NDA allies, except Shiv Sena, share BJP’s ideology? What does J&K’s PDP, Janata Dal (United) and Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) have in common with BJP? Political alliances and coalitions are marriage of convenience.

Shah’s language appears more galling when seen in the context of the occasion- the BJP’s foundation day. The 38th Foundation Day of the BJP reflected the precipitous fall in party’s standards and its nervousness before the 2019 elections.

Ashok K Singh is a senior journalist. Views expressed are the author’s own.